Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Under-23s win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Derby County Under-23s had a probability of 37.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.46%) and 3-1 (4.94%). The likeliest Derby County Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.3%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester United Under-23s would win this match.
