UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League B

Sep 7, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Windsor Park

Northern Ireland
1 - 5
Norway

McNair (6')
Ballard (36'), Cathcart (69')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Elyounoussi (2'), Braut Haaland (7', 58'), Sorloth (19', 47')
Meling (90+3')

Preview: Northern Ireland vs. Norway - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter

Published: September 5 2020 | 17:00

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:45

Sports Mole previews Monday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Northern Ireland and Norway, including team news and injury news.

Northern Ireland play host to Norway on Monday evening having begun their UEFA Nations League campaign with a battling 1-1 draw in Romania.

As for Norway, they suffered a relatively-surprising 2-1 defeat at the hands of Austria, leaving them at the bottom of Group B1.

Match preview

Northern Ireland manager Ian Baraclough pictured on September 4, 2020 © Reuters

After the first-half dismissal of Josh Magennis, the writing looked to be on the wall for Northern Ireland as they trailed Romania with over 50 minutes to play at a man disadvantage.

However, aided by an outstanding performance from goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell, they managed to repel their hosts before Gavin Whyte's late equaliser.

While his side rode their luck at times, newly-appointed boss Ian Baraclough was understandably delighted with the unlikely point, a result which eases the pressure slightly ahead of welcoming Norway to Windsor Park.

Arguably sitting as the underdogs in the group, Baraclough will acknowledge that they face five more stiff tests as they bid to avoid relegation to Group C, rather than there being a genuine belief in finishing ahead of their three rivals.

Nevertheless, the 49-year-old will still demand more from his team, hoping that they can take advantage of Norway being dealt a blow against Austria on Friday.

With Erling Braut Haaland being drafted into the starting lineup, Lars Lagerback would have been confident that his side had enough to see off their main group rivals on familiar territory.

However, goals either side of half time proved decisive, leaving Haaland's first strike in the senior ranks acting as no more than a consolation.

Despite five matches still remaining, Lagerback is aware that his team can ill-afford another defeat if they want to be competing against the stronger teams during the next campaign.

Facing opposition who are not renown for their goalscoring exploits, that may encourage the inclusion of Alexander Sorloth at a time when he is being linked with a move to a top European club.

Northern Ireland Nations League form: D
Northern Ireland form (all competitions): LLWDLD

Norway Nations League form: L
Norway form (all competitions): DDDWWL

Team News

Northern Ireland's Josh Magennis is shown a red card against Romania on September 4, 2020 © Reuters

Northern Ireland will be forced into at least one alteration with Magennis serving a one-match suspension.

With Conor Washington not making an impact on his own in attack, Whyte and Kyle Lafferty could get the nod in the final third.

Sorloth is likely to come into the Norway side, either as a replacement for Joshua King or as part of a front three.

Martin Linnes and Markus Henriksen are also pushing to earn roles in the starting XI.

Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Dallas, Ballard, Cathcart, Lewis; Whyte, Evans, Davis, Saville; McNair; Lafferty

Norway possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Elabdellaoui, Reginiussen, Ajer, Aleesami; Thorsby, Berge, Normann, Johansen; Sorloth, Haaland

SM words green background

We say: Northern Ireland 1-3 Norway

Having been put on the defensive with regards to qualification, expect Norway to throw caution to the wind on Monday night. With that in mind, we feel that their talented attack will have too much firepower for the home side's backline.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 62.86%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 14.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.95%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 1-0 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Norway would win this match.