Major League Soccer
Jun 4, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Red Bull Arena, Harrison
We said: New York Red Bulls 1-1 Orlando City
New York Red Bulls are a much-improved side under the helm of Lesesne, and they have won their last two MLS home games, but Orlando City have made a habit out of drawing against decent opposition in recent weeks.
As such, we expect the spoils to be shared on Saturday in what is likely to be a low-scoring game, given NY Red Bulls' stellar defensive record.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 53.88% . A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 19.97% .
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 15% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.28%) and 2-1 (9.04%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%) , while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (8%) . The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood .
Result New York Red Bulls Draw Orlando City 53.88% ( 0.01) 26.14% ( 0.11) 19.97% ( -0.12)
Both teams to score 42.86% ( -0.43)
40.51% ( -0.48) 59.49% ( 0.48)
20.15% ( -0.37) 79.85% ( 0.37)
77.76% ( -0.19) 22.24% ( 0.2)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 44.33% ( -0.29) 55.67% ( 0.3)
55.11% ( -0.41) 44.89% ( 0.41)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 19.16% ( -0.33) 80.85% ( 0.33)
New York Red Bulls 53.87%
Orlando City 19.97%
Draw 26.14%
New York Red Bulls Draw Orlando City 1-0 @ 15% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 11.28% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.65% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.74% Total : 53.87% 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.98% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.14% 0-1 @ 8% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.71% Total : 19.97%
rhs 2.0
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