Mexico and Ecuador will face off at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, with a spot in the quarter-finals of the Copa America at stake.
Both sides have three points heading into this decisive fixture, with La Tri defeating Jamaica 3-1, giving Ecuador the edge on goal difference at +1, while the Mexicans lost 1-0 to Venezuela and have a goal differential of zero.
Match preview
© Imago
A defeat on matchday two has put Jaime Lozano's men on the brink of elimination, needing a victory to prolong their stay at the Copa America beyond this weekend.
Should they fail to win this match, it would mark the third time in their last three appearances that El Tri have been knocked out of this competition in the group phase.
In their previous four appearances at the Copa America, Mexico have not been able to come away with maximum points in their final group fixture.
That matchday two defeat earlier this week was the first time that El Tri were held goalless in a Copa America group contest since a 0-0 draw with Bolivia in their opening match in 2015.
Mexico have lost six of their previous seven meetings versus CONMEBOL opponents across all competitions, suffering consecutive defeats against that region by a combined margin of 5-0.
The last two times that they have faced Ecuador, the Mexicans have failed to win and find the back of the net, though they have emerged victorious in four of their five all-time meetings against them at this tournament.
© Imago
After squandering a half-time advantage against Venezuela (2-1 loss), the Ecuadorians were able to right some wrongs on matchday two, earning their first points of this competition.
They enter this encounter, having won three of their previous four matches across all competitions and are well-positioned to make the quarter-finals for a third time in the last four editions of this tournament.
Only a defeat to the Mexicans would prevent Felix Sanchez's side from progressing into the knockout stage of this tournament on consecutive occasions for the first time this century.
Ecuador have not lost their final Copa America group fixture since 2011 (4-2 versus Brazil), coming from a goal down to earn a 1-1 draw on this matchday in 2019 and 2021.
The last 13 times that La Tri have scored multiple goals in a single game, they have emerged victorious each time, and they have not lost when doing so since a 3-2 defeat to Mexico in June 2019.
While they have not fared well at the Copa America versus Mexico, Ecuador won the previous match against them in this competition, 2-1 in 2015.
Team News
© Reuters
Mexico were without captain Edson Alvarez on Wednesday after he was injured against Jamaica, with Luis Romo taking his place as a holding midfielder alongside Luis Chavez.
Three Mexicans made their first appearances at the 2024 Copa America this week, with Cesar Huerta, Israel Reyes and Alexis Vega all entering their matchday two affair as substitutes.
Orbelin Pineda, who replaced Julian Quinones for the final 12 minutes plus stoppage time against the Venezuelans, could have given them a point three minutes before the 90, only to be denied from the penalty spot.
Enner Valencia is eligible to return for Ecuador this weekend after being red-carded in the opening half of their defeat to Venezuela.
Kevin Rodriguez took his place as the lone striker against Jamaica and was the only newcomer to their starting 11, while Janner Corozo made his first appearance at the 2024 tournament.
An own-goal by Kasey Palmer put them in front after 13 minutes on matchday two before Kendry Paez converted a penalty in the latter stages of the first half, with Alan Minda scoring his first on the international stage late in half number two.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Arteaga; Romo, Chavez; Antuna, Pineda, Quinones; Gimenez
Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Dominguez; Preciado, Torres, Pacho, Hincapie; Franco, Caicedo; Yeboah, Paez, Sarmiento; Valencia
We say: Mexico 0-2 Ecuador
The Mexicans have been wasteful in front of goal throughout this tournament, and we believe those frustrations will boil over against a well-drilled Ecuadorian squad.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
![Mexico's Edson Alvarez limps off on June 22, 2024 [IMAGO]](https://sm.imgix.net/11/29/1x1.gif?w=1&h=1 "Mexico's Edson Alvarez limps off on June 22, 2024 [IMAGO]")
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