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[monks data]
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 27
Mar 6, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Monaco

Marseille
0 - 1
Monaco


Peres (53'), Sampaoli (82'), Kamara (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Martins (58')
Disasi (56')

Preview: Marseille vs. Monaco - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Monaco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Marseille and Monaco will both seek a return to winning ways in Ligue 1 when the two podium hopefuls lock horns at the Orange Velodrome on Sunday evening.

Jorge Sampaoli's side could only take a point home from their meeting with Troyes last time out, while Les Monegasques were dumped out of the Coupe de France semi-finals by Nantes.


Match preview

Marseille coach Jorge Sampaoli reacts on February 24, 2022© Reuters

The 3,000-mile long journey back to base from Baku appeared to have taken its toll on Marseille, who entered their battle with Troyes having just booked their place in the last-16 of the Europa Conference League by seeing off Qarabag.

Dimitri Payet drew first blood from the penalty spot for Les Olympiens after Matteo Guendouzi was felled by Mama Balde, and just when Marseille fans were preparing to celebrate a much-needed three points, substitute Yoann Touzghar tapped home in the 90th minute.

Marseille were never in any position to challenge runaway leaders Paris Saint-Germain for the crown, but after dropping five points from the last six on offer, the second-placed Olympiens have fallen 15 behind Mauricio Pochettino's side, and their podium spot is far from safe either.

Sampaoli's men cannot drop out of the top three just yet but may be pushed down a place by Nice if Les Aiglons get the better of PSG on Saturday, and it is now five games in Ligue 1 without a clean sheet for this week's hosts, whose home form is also far from consistent.

Indeed, Les Olympiens have only prevailed in one of their last five league matches at the Orange Velodrome and also have next week's continental meeting with Basel to take into account, but Monaco are not exactly operating at the peak of their powers either.

Monaco coach Philippe Clement reacts on March 2, 2022© Reuters

What started out as a somewhat promising spell under Philippe Clement is now at risk of turning into a nightmare for Monaco, whose dreams of a second successive Coupe de France final were dashed at the Stade de la Beaujoire on Wednesday.

After a thrilling 2-2 draw with Nantes in normal time - with Myron Boadu saving Monaco's bacon in the 76th minute - Wissam Ben Yedder and Aurelien Tchouameni both failed to convert their spot kicks in the shootout as Les Canaris set up a showdown with Nice in the final.

Defeat to Antoine Kombouare's men came three days after Monaco lost 2-1 at home to Reims in the top flight, and with no wins from their last four in all competitions, Les Monegasques' hopes of a top-five finish have suffered a devastating blow.

Clement's side have now dropped to ninth in the rankings and are five points adrift of a potential European place, while their recent form on the road - no wins from their last four and just one victory from their last eight on rival turf in the league - does not make for pleasant reading either.

Furthermore, Marseille cruised to a 2-0 win at the Stade Louis II when the sides last locked horns back in September, and not since the 2016-17 season have the Principality side managed to keep a clean sheet in this fixture.

Marseille Ligue 1 form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

Marseille form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D

Monaco Ligue 1 form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L

Monaco form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Marseille's Dimitri Payet celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 27, 2022© Reuters

Marseille are set to head into the weekend's game with a clean bill of health, and Sampaoli is therefore spoiled for choice as he seeks a desperate return to winning ways in Ligue 1.

Bamba Dieng's spot up front will certainly come under threat from Cedric Bakambu and Arkadiusz Milik here, with Payet the only sure-fire starter in the final third for the hosts.

Pol Lirola represents a more natural option at right-back ahead of Valentin Rongier, while Luan Peres should continue to hold off Sead Kolasinac on the opposite side.

As for Monaco, Tchouameni, Caio Henrique and Jean Lucas are all back at Clement's disposal after serving their respective bans, with the latter potentially set for an immediate recall to the midfield over Youssouf Fofana.

Krepin Diatta is not expected to play again this season due to his ACL injury, and uncertainty also lingers over the availability of Aleksandr Golovin (groin) and Benoit Badiashile (hamstring).

Clement should consider some alterations either way given his side's disappointing streak, with Ruben Aguilar and Boadu both candidates to come into the first XI this weekend.

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Lirola, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Gerson, Kamara, Guendouzi; Under, Milik, Payet

Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Aguilar, Disasi, Maripan, Henrique; Vanderson, Lucas, Tchouameni, Diop; Boadu, Ben Yedder


SM words green background

We say: Marseille 2-1 Monaco

Having had less time to recover from a disappointing midweek outing, Monaco will be battling low confidence and fitness levels ahead of a fixture in which they have not defended well in down the years.

Marseille have not set the world alight in 2022 either, but Sampaoli's side have not had to travel to Azerbaijan and back again in the past week and have plenty of attacking options on the bench ready to be called upon, so we give the edge to Les Olympiens in this battle.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.47%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Marseille vs Monaco

Marseille
77.1%
Draw
12.0%
Monaco
10.8%
83
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Marseille's Matteo Guendouzi pictured on January 7, 2022
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG12102036102632
2MonacoMonaco1282221101126
3Marseille1272327161123
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon125431916319
6Reims125342016418
7Nice1145221111017
8Lens124531312117
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse124351314-115
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest124171622-613
13Saint-EtienneSt Etienne124171125-1413
14Rennes113261318-511
15NantesNantes112451417-310
16Angers112451320-710
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier122191132-217


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