Porto will be looking to overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit when they travel to the Parc Olympique Lyonnais to face Lyon for the second leg of their Europa League last-16 tie on Thursday night.
The hosts have won only three of their last nine games on home soil across all competitions, while the visitors are unbeaten in each of their last 10 matches on the road, winning nine in the process.
Match preview
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Lyon's domestic campaign has left little to be desired so far this season, with Peter Bosz's men currently sitting in 10th place and six points behind the European positions. A 4-2 defeat at home to Rennes last weekend was their eighth this term, two more than they recorded in the entirety of last season having played 10 games fewer.
However, success in the Europa League has been their saving grace and their unbeaten run in this season's competition was extended to seven games courtesy of an impressive 1-0 victory at the Estadio do Dragao last week.
After a VAR review for a potential offside in the build-up, Lucas Paqueta's 59th-minute strike broke the deadlock and proved to be enough for the French outfit to secure a slender one-goal advantage. Lyon's victory over Porto was in fact their first in five attempts against them in European competition.
Having lost only twice in 22 home matches in the Europa League, winning 16 and drawing the other four, Lyon will be confident of following up last week's win with another positive result.
However, a first-leg advantage has not always been beneficial for Les Gones; in the 2017-18 campaign – the last time they reached the last 16 of the Europa League – Lyon won 1-0 in the first leg over CSKA Moscow but suffered a 3-2 defeat in the reverse fixture and were eliminated on away goals.
Fortunately for Lyon, the away goals rule has been scrapped this season and they must simply avoid defeat on Thursday night to advance to the last eight for the first time since 2016-17.
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While Lyon have struggled in the French top flight, Porto are still on course for the domestic double, as they are currently boasting a 2-1 first-leg lead over Sporting Lisbon in the Taca de Portugal semi-finals and are sitting six points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga table.
The Dragons bounced back from their midweek European loss to Lyon and extended their unbeaten league run to 26 matches with a comfortable 4-0 victory at home against relegation-threatened Tondela on Sunday, with Mehdi Taremi, Galeno, Fabio Vieira and Francisco Conceicao all on the scoresheet.
Porto will now turn their attention back to the Europa League with the second leg held in France, a country in which they have won each of their last three European games, beating Lille in 2014-15, Monaco in 2017-18 and Marseille in 2020-21.
After winning all three of their knockout games away from home on their way to Europa League glory in 2010-11, Porto have since failed to win any of their last eight games on the road in the competition, conceding at least twice on each occasion.
Sergio Conceicao's men cannot afford for this miserable run to continue if they are to overturn a one-goal deficit on Thursday. Victory by two or more goals at the Parc Olympique Lyonnais would see them progress to the last eight for the first time since 2013-14.
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Team News
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Lyon are unable to call upon Jerome Boateng (hamstring), Sinaly Diomande (ankle), Rayan Cherki (foot) and Lenny Pintor (ACL) due to injury.
Bosz may name the same starting lineup for the third successive game, which would see Tottenham Hotspur loanee Tanguy Ndombele, Maxence Caqueret and Paqueta all begin in centre-midfield, with Houssem Aouar and Jeff Reine-Adelaide starting as substitutes.
Jason Denayer has recovered from injury but missed last weekend's game due to illness, and the centre-back will be assessed ahead of kickoff. The Belgian is most likely to begin on the bench if fit, with Thiago Mendes and Castello Lukeba to continue at the heart of the defence.
As for Porto, they are sweating over the fitness of 39-year-old centre-back Pepe, who was forced off with a head injury in the first leg and subsequently missed last weekend's league fixture.
Right-back Wilson Manafa remains sidelined with a knee problem, but left-back Wendell has served his three-match suspension and will be in contention to start ahead of Zaidu Sanusi.
Conceicao could stick with the same midfield and attack that has started the last two games, with Otavio, Vitor Ferreira, Mateus Uribe and Pepe Aquino starting as the midfield four behind strikers Evanilson and Taremi.
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Dubois, Mendes, Lukeba, Emerson; Ndombele, Caqueret; Faivre, Paqueta, Toko Ekambi; Dembele
Porto possible starting lineup:
D. Costa; Mario, Mbemba, Cardoso, Wendell; Otavio, Ferreira, Uribe, Pepe; Evanilson, Taremi
We say: Lyon 2-2 Porto (Lyon to win 3-2 on aggregate)
Although Lyon currently have a one-goal advantage, there is still plenty to play for and an entertaining contest could be on the cards on Thursday night.
The hosts have struggled on home soil in the last few weeks and they will find it challenging to keep a clean sheet against a fired-up Porto outfit. However, Bosz's men also possess quality in the final third and we can see them playing out at least a draw, which would be enough to edge them through to the quarter-finals on aggregate.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 21.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Lyon win it was 1-0 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
