Luton Town know a win against Reading on the final day of the Championship season will guarantee them a place in the playoffs.
The Hatters currently sit sixth in the table, two points ahead of seventh-placed Middlesbrough. The Royals will definitely finish 21st after confirming their survival a fortnight ago.
Match preview
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It has been a remarkable season so far for Luton, who are pushing for promotion despite having the lowest budget in the second tier.
The Hatters seemed relatively comfortable in the playoff positions a week ago following a run of just one defeat in eight matches, but a 7-0 loss to Fulham on Monday means they are looking nervously over their shoulder.
A win on the final day guarantees a spot in the top six, but if they drop points then Middlesbrough or Millwall – who both have a better goal difference – could be ready to take their place. It is no wonder that Nathan Jones has described this game as "giant, mammoth, unbelievable".
Luton have suffered just four defeats from 22 games at Kenilworth Road this season, and have only been beaten once at home since the end of November. They have scored in 10 of their 11 home matches in 2022.
The Hatters earned a 2-0 win in Berkshire in this season's reverse fixture in January as Allan Campbell found the net after Tom Holmes's own goal.
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Reading have nothing left to play for but will aim to be the party crashers in Bedfordshire on Saturday afternoon.
The Royals – who were deducted six points in November for breaching profit and sustainability rules – have spent the season battling against relegation after finishing seventh last year.
Paul Ince replaced Veljko Paunovic in the dugout in February and has steered the club to safety with four wins and three draws from 13 matches.
Reading, who lost 1-0 at home against West Bromwich Albion last weekend, have won only six away games all season and have picked up just one win in their last six matches on the road.
The Royals have only won one of their last seven trips to Kenilworth Road, with that solitary victory being a 5-0 thrashing in July 2020.
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Team News
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Jones has refused to say which of his players will be fit for this game after blaming injuries for their thrashing at the hands of Fulham.
Luke Berry, Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu, James Bree, Sonny Bradley and Elijah Adebayo were all ruled out for the trip to Craven Cottage, before Allan Campbell withdrew from the team after suffering a hamstring issue in the warm-up.
Fred Onyedinma was then forced off after just half an hour against the Whites, while his replacement Peter Kioso was also carrying a knock.
Danny Drinkwater is a doubt for Reading, with Ince revealing that the midfielder has had "a slight problem" in training this week.
Terrell Thomas made his debut for the Royals at right-back last week and should keep his place with Andy Yiadom out injured.
Youngsters Kelvin Abrefa, Dejan Tetek and Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan could all be given opportunities to impress at Kenilworth Road.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Isted; Potts, Lockyer, Burke; Naismith; Cornick, Clark, Lansbury, Bell; Hylton, Jerome
Reading possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Thomas, Morrison, McIntyre, Rahman; Tetek, Dele-Bashiru; Meite, Laurent, Hoilett; Joao
We say: Luton Town 1-0 Reading
It will certainly be a nervous afternoon at Kenilworth Road, but we expect Luton to get the job done and secure an all-important victory. The Hatters have been strong at home all season and Reading have shown in their last two games that there is little motivation in the squad now that they are assured of safety.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 56.72%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 19.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Luton Town in this match.
