The 2022 Major League Soccer regular season kicks off on Saturday, as Los Angeles FC begin life under new management when they face a team that exceeded expectations last year, the Colorado Rapids.
LA missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history in 2021, leading to the departure of manager Bob Bradley, while the Burgundy Boys finished first in the Western Conference a season ago, only to fall to the Portland Timbers 1-0 in the playoffs.
Match preview
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They may have a new manager to start this campaign, but philosophically the identity of The Black-and-Gold remains the same with Steve Cherundolo now in charge.
Despite a busy offseason, it is anything but a rebuild for this club, who like to play fast and aggressive, while running straight at opposing defences.
Some injury problems in attack, notably to Carlos Vela, put a dent in their 2021 aspirations, and they have since added their share of depth players out wide, which should make them a handful for opposing defences.
Not only are they expected to be a deeper team than a season ago, but they have also added several newcomers with MLS experience from successful programs, and all of that could prove to be invaluable throughout the new campaign.
Last year this club had its share of catastrophic defensive moments, which offset what was at times a potent attacking side, while their goalkeeping rarely helped them out when needed.
There is plenty of promise on this team, yet still some uncertainty as they have the potential to be title contenders, though they could also underachieve.
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A team that many had envisioned as the most promising in the league last year not only lived up to the hype, but exceeded it in the regular season, as the Rapids bested Western Conference giants Sporting Kansas City and the Seattle Sounders on the final matchday before the playoffs.
Once the league's laughing stock, Robin Fraser has quickly transformed the fortunes of this club, who will be one of the favourites to win it all in 2022.
While many might say that this group are still missing a number nine who can fire home some much-needed goals, this is a well-structured unit who are smart and play their positions soundly.
Perhaps their biggest offensive strength in 2021 was how dangerous they could be on set-pieces, intimidating in the air, and possessing some technically gifted midfielders who scored some spectacular goals in dead ball situations.
For the most part, they were able to keep the core of their group together, so there should be plenty of familiarity within this squad who now have something that they have not had in quite some time, the weight of expectation.
Last year they gave up the second-fewest goals in the regular season (35) and were rarely caught out of position while doing an excellent job of staying tight to their markers, rarely allowing much time or space.
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Team News
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Midfielder Kellyn Acosta should bring a ton of stability to the LAFC midfield coming over from the Rapids, while Franco Escobar and Ryan Hollingshead have plenty of MLS experience and goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau seems to be at the peak of his career and was the unquestioned MVP for the Vancouver Whitecaps a year ago.
Ensuring Carlos Vela is healthy will be essential to this team's success, and the Mexican should have some help in attack in the form of Cristian Arango, who led them in goals last season with 14.
Kim Moon-hwan showed potential at times in 2021, and the coaching staff will be looking for him to improve his defensive work, while acquiring llie from Sporting Kansas City could provide them with a versatile midfielder who is capable of effectively preventing the counter.
The Rapids lost a solid two-way contributor when Cole Bassett signed with Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, while Younes Namli never seemed to settle into form at Colorado, having now joined Dutch side Sparta Rotterdam.
Bringing in Bryan Acosta was a move that had many people scratching their heads, as the Honduran has often been criticized for his decision-making and, at times, overzealous play, while they added 20-year-old Max from Flamengo with the hope that he can add another dimension and turn them into a more dangerous team during the run of play.
Auston Trusty will be moving to Arsenal in July, which could mean that goalkeeper William Yarbrough might need to be as sharp as he was in 2021 when he finished tied with Joe Willis and Carlos Coronel in clean sheets (13).
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Palacios, Fall, Murillo, Escobar; K. Acosta; Cifuentes, Blessing; Rodriguez, Arango, Vela
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Trusty, Wilson, Abubakar; Esteves, Rosenberry; Kaye, Price, B. Acosta; Rubio, Lewis
We say: Los Angeles FC 1-0 Colorado Rapids
LA made some savvy moves during the offseason, and they should be a side to be aware of in attack, while they now have a goalkeeper who might make their defence look better than they actually are.
The Rapids failed to address their goalscoring issues after their elimination from the postseason, and beating a keeper with the calibre of Crepeau will be quite the challenge.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 49.52%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
