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Liverpool logo
Premier League | Gameweek 1
Sep 12, 2020 at 5.30pm UK
Anfield
Leeds logo

Liverpool
4 - 3
Leeds

Salah (4' pen., 33', 88' pen.), van Dijk (20')
Firmino (76')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Harrison (12'), Bamford (30'), Klich (66')

Preview: Liverpool vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews the opening-day Premier League showdown between champions Liverpool and newly-promoted Leeds United, including predictions, team news and lineups.

The opening day of the 2020-21 Premier League season provides a champions versus champions clash as last term's top-flight title winners Liverpool welcome Championship winners Leeds United to Anfield.

Life back in the big time after a 16-year absence could not get off to a tougher start for Leeds, while for Liverpool they will be aiming to get their title defence off to a winning start after ending their 30-year wait to be crowned kings of England.


Match preview

Liverpool players and staff celebrate winning the 2019-20 Premier League title© Reuters

The memories of last season's relentless, remarkable and record-breaking charge to the Premier League title will not have faded yet for Liverpool, but the league table has been refreshed and Jurgen Klopp will know that the next race begins in the very first game.

Manchester City - and perhaps others - will expect to put up a much more competitive fight this time around and so Liverpool will consider themselves back in the 2018-19 mindset, when they knew that any dropped points at any stage of the season could prove costly.

The Reds will also be confident, though, and rightly so given that they won the title with an unprecedented seven games to spare last season and finished a whopping 18 points above a Man City side widely regarded to be one of the greatest teams English football has ever seen.

There is likely to be motivation from outside sources too; bookmakers have Man City as clear title favourites despite last season's one-horse procession, and Liverpool will know themselves that to be considered a truly great team they must now defend their crown - or "attack" the next one, as Klopp likes to say.

A Community Shield defeat on penalties to Arsenal will not cause too much consternation for Liverpool, who suffered the same fate at the hands of Man City prior to the 2019-20 campaign, and also like last season they will begin with a home match against the winners of the Championship.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp pictured ahead of the Community Shield on August 29, 2020© Reuters

Norwich City visited Anfield on that occasion having stormed to the Championship title with one more point than Leeds managed last season, and the Canaries caused problems despite ultimately falling to a 4-1 defeat.

Leeds will be hoping that a similar fate does not await them both in this game and in the season as a whole, and they at least know that matchday one is about as difficult as it gets.

Liverpool are unbeaten at Anfield since April 2017 - a run of 59 matches - and incredibly have won 25 of their last 26 on home turf, the only exception being a 1-1 draw with Burnley in July which ended the longest home winning run in English top-flight history at 24.

It is a formidable record, but Marcelo Bielsa may feel that matchday one, when his side are still buoyant from their promotion and fired up for their first game back in the Premier League since 2004, is as good a time as any to face the champions away.

The visitors certainly have a good record on the opening day, having played more games on matchday one without losing than any other team in Premier League history, winning five and drawing seven of their previous 12.

Leeds United players celebrate winning promotion to the Premier League in July 2020© Reuters

Leeds also ended last season in fine form and arrive on Merseyside with five wins from their last six away games, although there is only a certain amount you can read into that given that those games came at a different level.

Nonetheless, the Whites will feel that they are well equipped to compete in the top tier, particularly after bringing in proven international quality with the likes of Rodrigo Moreno and Robin Koch.

Add to that the Bielsa factor - and that he has now confirmed he is staying at the club - and Leeds are very much a promoted team that much of the division will be wary of facing.

Leeds will at least be confident of scoring, with Liverpool having kept just one clean sheet in their last nine outings including pre-season, which has seen them beat Stuttgart and Blackpool but draw with Red Bull Salzburg and lose to Arsenal on penalties.

Not since April 2001 have Leeds beaten Liverpool - a run of eight matches which includes six Liverpool wins and two draws - while their most recent visit to Anfield ended with a 2-0 League Cup defeat in 2016.

Liverpool pre-season form: WDLW

Leeds United pre-season form: L


Team News

Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson lifts the Premier League trophy on July 22, 2020© Reuters

Liverpool could be forced to start the new season without their captain Jordan Henderson, who continues to struggle with a knee injury carried over from last term.

The midfielder missed England's double-header and has not featured in any of Liverpool's pre-season games so, even if he is fit enough to play some part, it may only come from the bench.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is also sidelined with a similar problem, while Xherdan Shaqiri is out with a muscle injury and new signing Kostas Tsimikas is unavailable to make his debut after being diagnosed with COVID-19.

Elsewhere, Klopp may consider resting Joe Gomez after he played the full 90 minutes in both of England's Nations League matches, although the centre-back is expected to start alongside last season's ever-present Virgil van Dijk.

Mohamed Salah will be looking to create another slice of Premier League history by scoring in a fourth successive opening fixture, a feat only previously achieved by Teddy Sheringham.

It is also bound to be a significant day for Leeds-born James Milner who, if he features, will have played in Leeds' last 31 Premier League games despite their 16-year absence from the top flight.

The visitors come into the game with a relatively clean bill of health but will still be without Adam Forshaw, who continues to struggle with a hip injury.

The likes of Helder Costa and newly-capped England midfielder Kalvin Phillips have returned to fitness during the break.

Club-record signing Rodrigo is expected to lead the line for his debut, and if that is the case then it would be his first Premier League appearance since a loan spell with Bolton Wanderers in 2010-11.

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Keita, Fabinho, Wijnaldum; Salah, Firmino, Mane

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Cooper, Koch, Dallas; Costa, Hernandez, Phillips, Klich, Harrison; Rodrigo


SM words green background

We say: Liverpool 3-1 Leeds United

Leeds have the ability to cause Liverpool a few problems and this is unlikely to be a one-sided affair, despite Liverpool's imperious record at Anfield.

Ultimately we expect the Premier League champions to get their title defence off to a winning start, but we also expect Leeds to give a good account of themselves on their return to the top flight.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:




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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Game History

Who will win Saturday's Premier League clash between Liverpool and Leeds?

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Draw
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Leeds
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Liverpool players and staff celebrate winning the 2019-20 Premier League title
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton11119721-144


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