Lille's powers of recovery after suffering a defeat have been a cornerstone of their success this season, while Nantes cannot buy a point let alone a win at home and do not strike fear into the hearts of opposing defences.
The hosts' rearguard action against Brest was admirable, and Fonseca's attacking ranks have been decimated over the past week, but the visitors should still find a way through to all but confirm their Champions League status.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 59.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 17.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.84%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Nantes win it was 1-0 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
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