Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24

Feb 13, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Saint-Symphorien

Metz
1 - 2
Marseille

Maiga (52')
Pajot (19'), Traore (45+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bakambu (26'), Milik (82')
Bakambu (71'), Payet (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Metz and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Expect to see Marseille in a foul mood following their elimination at the Coupe de France, and it seems unlikely that they will have too much trouble slowing down the fourth-lowest scoring team in the league, and a side who have lacked a clinical finisher all season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Metz had a probability of 19.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.16%) and 1-2 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Metz win it was 1-0 (5.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Metz	Draw	Marseille
19.74%	22.72%	57.54%

Both teams to score 52.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.11%

46.89%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.86%

69.14%

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.15%

37.85%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.38%

74.62%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.97%

16.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.62%

45.37%

Score Analysis

Metz 19.74%

Marseille 57.53%

Draw 22.72%

Metz	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 5.89% 2-1 @ 5.24% 2-0 @ 2.86% 3-1 @ 1.7% 3-2 @ 1.55% 3-0 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.56% Total : 19.74%	1-1 @ 10.79% 0-0 @ 6.07% 2-2 @ 4.8% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.72%	0-1 @ 11.1% 0-2 @ 10.16% 1-2 @ 9.88% 0-3 @ 6.2% 1-3 @ 6.03% 2-3 @ 2.93% 0-4 @ 2.84% 1-4 @ 2.76% 2-4 @ 1.34% 0-5 @ 1.04% 1-5 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.24% Total : 57.53%