Marseille can clinch their place in the Europa League group stage next season with a win or draw in their final Ligue 1 match this season at Stade Saint-Symphorien against Metz on Sunday.
Les Olympiens are coming off a dramatic 3-2 win against Angers, while Les Grenats are looking to end their campaign on a positive note after losing their last two league games, including a 2-1 defeat to Lorient last Sunday.
Match preview
© Reuters
It has been another positive step forward for Metz in 2020-21, as they prepare for the final game of the season, already assured of a place in the French top flight next season.
After finishing 15th in the shortened 2019-20 season, they will improve on that position, regardless of how they fare in their last game, but a win could move them beyond Nice and into ninth in the table.
If they win on Sunday, the worst they can finish is 10th, which would be the first time they end a Ligue 1 campaign in the top half of the table since the 1998-99 season.
In his second stint as manager of Les Grenats, Frederic Antonetti will consider his team to be very fortunate that they are in their current position, especially given their form in the league over the past couple of months.
Since March, Metz have lost seven of their 10 games in Ligue 1 and were shut out four times in that stretch, although they never really appeared to be in danger of relegation.
A big reason why this Metz team have been safely positioned in the table has to do with their play in the final month of 2020 and their opening month of the new year, where they earned 18 points in 10 games, winning five games in that stretch.
© Reuters
While Metz will improve their standing from last season, Marseille will drop a few places in the table this season, compared to their last one when they came in second and earned a spot in the Champions League group stage.
Under new manager Jorge Sampaoli, Marseille have been able to gain a lot more points, losing only once in their previous 10 matches in the league, with an opportunity to play in Europe for a second consecutive season.
Since taking over, the Argentine coach has emphasised the importance of a solid attacking presence, and his side have responded, scoring three goals in five matches domestically.
It has not been an excellent campaign for the once-dominant Marseille team, who began to fall behind in the title race in the new year, winning only two of their 10 league matches in January and February.
The resignation of former manager Andre Villas-Boas and the appointment of Jorge Sampaoli, plus a new club president in Pablo Longoria, led to a lot of off-field distractions for this team.
There is, however, a silver lining amid all the negatives at Marseille in 2021, as a draw on Sunday would ensure that they finish in the top five of the table for a fifth consecutive campaign.
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Metz midfielder Warren Tchimbembe will miss the final game of this campaign with a meniscal injury, which means Habib Maiga will most likely start on the right side of midfield once again.
Attacking midfielder Farid Boulaya will hope to end the season with a couple more assists.
He currently has eight assists, but is just two behind Memphis Depay, Zinedine Ferhat and Dimitri Payet.
Winger Florian Thauvin is getting set to play his final game in a Marseille shirt, as he will join Mexican side Tigres UANL next season.
The 2018 World Cup winner has four goals in his career against Metz, the second-most among Marseille players, but well behind Jean-Pierre Papin, who has eight.
Despite only joining on loan in January, striker Arkadiusz Milik is tied with Thauvin for the team lead in goals this season with eight, after scoring a hat-trick in their 3-2 win over Angers.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Delaine, Fofana, Kouyate, Bronn, Centonze; Sarr, N'Doram, Maiga; Boulaya, Goncalves
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Lirola, Gonzalez, Caleta-Car, Sakai; Rongier, Kamara, Henrique; Thauvin, Payet, Milik
We say: Metz 1-3 Marseille
Marseille are the only side in this game who have anything to play for, as they have a chance to qualify for the Europa League, plus their soon-to-be former striker Florian Thauvin will want to end his time with the club on a high note.
Metz will be content to start fresh next season, especially given their form at home lately, where they have lost six consecutive matches and failed to score in three of them.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
