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Championship | Gameweek 38

Jun 21, 2020 at 12pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff
2 - 0
Leeds

Hoilett (36'), Glatzel (72')
Adomah (42'), Hoilett (43')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Costa (37'), Phillips (45+1'), Roberts (57'), Klich (81')

Preview: Cardiff City vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 19 June 2020

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship fixture between Cardiff City and Leeds United, including team news and predicted lineups.

Leeds United return to action against Cardiff City on Sunday afternoon with the target of retaining top spot in the Championship table.

Ahead of the next batch of fixtures, Cardiff are in possession of ninth position, leaving the club two points adrift of the playoffs.

Match preview

Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa pops a squat on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

Having put together a five-match winning streak before the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Leeds know that a return of 21 points from their remaining nine games will be enough to earn a return to the Premier League.

Realistically, third-placed Fulham will not prevail in each of their remaining fixtures, meaning that a lower accumulation of points should be enough for the Yorkshire giants to secure a spot in next season's top flight.

Although Marcelo Bielsa will want his team to win every game, there will also be an acknowledgment that every point will make a difference over the coming weeks.

With all momentum having been lost from their previous run, Leeds may find themselves having to grind out points with matches coming up against opponents at both ends of the table.

Fulham are the visitors to Elland Road next Friday for a potentially season-defining contest, and how the Cottagers fare against fourth-placed Brentford on Saturday afternoon is likely to have a considerable bearing on how Bielsa approaches this game, which will be played a day later.

From Cardiff's perspective, Neil Harris will acknowledge that his team have recorded too many draws this campaign with 15 coming from 37 outings.

Nevertheless, those stalemates have kept the Bluebirds in the hunt for the playoffs at a time when many expected the club to move no higher than mid-table.

Although Harris has come in for criticism at various stages of the season, Cardiff have recorded six victories and four draws from their last 13 outings, a ratio which may be good enough to edge out their rivals come the end of July.

Four of the top seven teams in the division are to come in their opening half-a-dozen fixtures after the resumption, but going into those games as underdogs may prove to be a blessing in disguise for a team which has largely gone under the radar.

Cardiff City Championship form: WDLLDW

Leeds United Championship form: DWWWWW

Team News

Leeds goalkeeper Kiko Casilla pictured in February 2020 © Reuters

Kiko Casilla still has six games remaining on his suspension after being found guilty of racially abusing Charlton Athletic winger Jonathan Leko.

That will lead to Illan Meslier continuing to deputise between the sticks in what should be the only selection which goes against Bielsa's preferred starting lineup.

Ezgjan Alioski could be used as an alternative to Helder Costa or Jack Harrison on one of the flanks.

While Greg Cunningham has returned to training after a serious knee injury, he is unlikely to be risked in this contest.

Without naming names, Harris has acknowledged that a number of players are still short of fitness ahead of this game.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Richards, Nelson, Morrison, Bennett; Vaulks, Ralls; Meandez-Laing, Tomlin, Hoilett; Paterson

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Cooper, White, Dallas; Phillips, Hernandez, Klich; Costa, Harrison, Bamford

We say: Cardiff City 1-1 Leeds United

While Leeds will be eager to register maximum points in South Wales, they will acknowledge that simply avoiding defeat may be acceptable at this stage of their campaign. Combined with Cardiff adopting a similar mindset in hosting the league leaders, we feel that this game could end in a low-scoring draw.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 57.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 19.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.4%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 1-0 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.