Leeds United and Barnsley square off in a Yorkshire derby on Wednesday evening as both teams look to progress through to the EFL Cup third round.
While the home side have enjoyed a strong start in the Premier League, the visitors have struggled to find any consistency on their return to League One.
Match preview
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When Leeds parted ways with the likes of Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha, there was the perception that they would suffer without the presence of their two key players.
However, Leeds have become more of a team under Jesse Marsch, a feeling which was strengthened as his side responded from conceding a two-goal lead at Southampton to outfighting Chelsea at the weekend.
Although the West Yorkshire giants had to ride their luck during the opening quarter, their work-rate and tenacity was rewarded as they forced Chelsea into mistakes and deservedly prevailed by a 3-0 scoreline.
Collecting seven points from a possible nine in the Premier League may mean that this game will result in mass changes being made by Marsch, whose team next face a trip to fellow unbeaten team Brighton & Hove Albion.
Nevertheless, there is a spring in Leeds' step right now and Marsch will select a team which he feels is good enough to advance through to the next round and retain local bragging rights.
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Everyone associated with Barnsley will probably have mixed feelings about facing Leeds at Elland Road when they are at the top of their game and the Tykes are not.
Nevertheless, this is another opportunity for Michael Duff's side to record an eye-catching win after edging out Middlesbrough in the previous round of this competition.
However, Barnsley have struggled in the third tier, Duff watching his side lose by a 3-0 scoreline at home to Wycombe Wanderers at the weekend.
At this early stage, Barnsley remain just three points adrift of fifth position, but a trip to leaders Ipswich Town follows their 24-mile trip to their more illustrious neighbours.
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Team News
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While Liam Cooper and Patrick Bamford are closing in on returns from injury, Marsch may not want to risk either player from the opening whistle.
However, the players who were selected on the substitutes' bench against Chelsea should all be handed starts, with Robin Koch and Pascal Struijk potentially the only players to retain their spots in the team due to injuries to other defenders.
Luis Sinisterra has been provided with 26 minutes across two substitute outings since recovering from a hamstring injury, setting up the former Feyenoord man to start this fixture.
Although Duff may make less changes to his Barnsley XI, he will likely look to bring in some fresh legs and strengthen his midfield.
Matthew Wolfe and William Hondermarck could come into the centre of the pitch, while James Norwood is an alternative in attack.
Callum Styles may not be risked as speculation persists around his future, while Conor McCarthy could get an opportunity in the back three.
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Klaesson; Drameh, Koch, Hjelde, Struijk; Forshaw, Klich; Summerville, Greenwood, Sinisterra; Gelhardt
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Collins; Andersen, McCarthy, Kitching; Williams, Wolfe, Hondermarck, Benson, Odour; Cole, Norwood
We say: Leeds United 3-0 Barnsley
With local pride at stake, many of Barnsley's players may raise their game for this contest. However, even if Marsch names an entirely different starting XI, we expect the home side to power their way to victory over their county neighbours.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 56.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 20.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
