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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.15%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
36.09% ( 0.06) | 26.75% ( -0.05) | 37.15% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 51.72% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.64% ( 0.22) | 53.36% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.1% ( 0.19) | 74.9% ( -0.19) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.6% ( 0.14) | 28.4% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.85% ( 0.18) | 64.15% ( -0.18) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.23% ( 0.1) | 27.77% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.65% ( 0.13) | 63.35% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
1-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.25% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 36.09% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.89% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.74% | 0-1 @ 10.1% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.77% 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 37.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 |
3 | Wrexham | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 28 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 27 |
5 | Barnsley | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 26 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 26 |
7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
9 | Exeter CityExeter | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Reading | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 23 |
11 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 23 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 21 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
14 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Stevenage | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 18 |
16 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
17 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
18 | Blackpool | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 17 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 13 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 11 |
23 | Burton Albion | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 8 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
> League One Full Table |