Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-0 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.