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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 58.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 20.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 1-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
Result | ||
Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Exeter City |
58.15% ( -0.49) | 21.13% ( 0.17) | 20.71% ( 0.32) |
Both teams to score 59.16% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.58% ( -0.35) | 38.41% ( 0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.3% ( -0.37) | 60.7% ( 0.37) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87% ( -0.26) | 13% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.48% ( -0.52) | 39.52% ( 0.52) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68% ( 0.1) | 31.99% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.54% ( 0.11) | 68.45% ( -0.11) |
Score Analysis |
Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Exeter City |
2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.42% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.73% Total : 58.15% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.13% | 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 4.74% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.51% Total : 20.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 29 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 26 |
3 | Wrexham | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 25 |
4 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 24 |
6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 23 |
7 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
8 | Barnsley | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 22 |
9 | Reading | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 22 |
10 | Stockport CountyStockport | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 19 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 19 |
13 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 18 |
14 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
15 | Stevenage | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 17 |
16 | Blackpool | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 16 |
17 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
18 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
24 | Burton Albion | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 4 |
> League One Full Table |