Following their first leg triumph in Portugal last week, Porto travel to Rome, where they look to complete a Europa League playoff round victory over Lazio on Thursday evening.
The hosts let a precious lead slip and trail by a goal before battle recommences at Stadio Olimpico, so hope to have their star striker back in action against the Primeira Liga leaders.
Match preview
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After suffering yet another reverse away from home in European competition - losing 2-1 at Estadio do Dragao last week - Lazio are on the brink of elimination before the last 16 stage.
Though in-form forward Mattia Zaccagni gave the Biancocelesti an early lead midway through the first half, they went on to twice concede Antonio Martinez goals. Unable to strike back, with top scorer Ciro Immobile laid low by illness, they are therefore playing catch-up from the start of the second leg.
Much like in Serie A, Maurizio Sarri's side have proved less effective away from home in continental competition - following last week's defeat, they have won just once in 13 European games on the road. Home form, though, has been a different matter.
Lazio have lost only once at Stadio Olimpico in all competitions this term, while scoring at a rate approaching three goals per game at their Roman headquarters in Serie A. Not only that, but they are also yet to concede a goal there in Europe this season.
After a record-equalling ninth appearance in the group stage, the Aquile are competing in the Europa League's knockout phase for the seventh time. However, they were eliminated in three of their previous six campaigns at this equivalent point, so will be determined to fight back on Thursday - particularly with both the Scudetto and Coppa Italia already out of reach.
Having previously won three of their last four league games without conceding a goal, Lazio finished Sunday evening's trip to mid-table Udinese grateful for even a point, as the hosts' Nahuel Molina rattled the crossbar after the first-half ended level.
That 1-1 draw, then, ensured they remain undefeated in Serie A since early January, but they will need to step up to another level if they are to progress past Porto.
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Under the guidance of former Lazio double winner Sergio Conceicao, who makes an emotional return to Rome on Thursday, Porto have been unassailable in 2022 - taking maximum points from eight of their nine matches since the start of the year.
Also winning 10 and drawing two of their 12 away fixtures in the league this season, Porto have dominated domestically and remain unbeaten heading into the final third of a potentially glorious campaign.
After missing out on the title last year, the Dragons may have then failed to secure their fifth straight qualification from the Champions League group stage - ending with only five points in a testing Group B - but have dropped into a competition in which they enjoy a rich history.
Indeed, Porto also won its direct predecessor, the UEFA Cup, during the golden reign of Jose Mourinho - eliminating Lazio in the 2003 semi-finals by winning 4-1 in the home leg, before a goalless away draw sealed safe passage to the final.
Though this is the now club's sixth participation in the Europa League knockout phase - they were crowned winners in their debut campaign 11 years ago - the Iberian giants have lost three of their last-32 ties since lifting the trophy.
In fact, they have failed to record an away victory in seven Europa League knockout matches - losing each of their last three - and are without an away win in any post-Christmas European fixture during that time - losing 11 of 15 continental road trips over the past decade.
Nonetheless, Porto travel to the Italian capital in fine form, as Sunday's 1-0 win at Moreirense keeps Conceicao's men six points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga table. Having stayed undefeated since the dramatic loss to Atletico Madrid which saw them dumped out of the Champions League, the Dragons are a formidable force for any team to reckon with.
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Team News
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Never missing an opportunity to complain about the impact of Europa League fixtures on his squad, Maurizio Sarri could now be without more than one member of his first-choice front three on Thursday.
Following the quick turnaround from Porto to Udine, the Lazio head coach still awaits confirmation that star striker Ciro Immobile - who missed both the first leg and Sunday night's match with a fever - can return, while Pedro has picked up an ankle injury and Mattia Zaccagni is suspended. Therefore, former Porto loanee Felipe Anderson could feature as a 'false nine', with on-loan Sporting winger Jovane Cabral also in contention to start.
Meanwhile, Lucas Leiva and Luis Alberto both return from serving domestic suspensions, but defenders Francesco Acerbi and Manuel Lazzari remain sidelined through injury.
Following his impact in the opening leg, Toni Martinez returned to the Porto bench on Sunday, but the 24-year-old forward is likely to start up front alongside Fabio Vieira for the visitors. Mehdi Taremi and Evanilson started together at the weekend, so are now expected to feature from the bench.
If both are consigned to a substitute role, they would join Galeno as a second-half option for the visitors - the recent signing from Braga was the Europa League's joint-top scorer during the group phase, with six goals.
Goalkeeper Agustin Marchesin is back from a European ban, but Wendell remains suspended, with both having been sent off in the Champions League defeat against Atletico Madrid which saw Porto eliminated from the competition.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Marusic, Patric, Felipe, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Pedro, Anderson, Cabral
Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Mario, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Otavio, Uribe, Grujic, Vitinha; Vieira, Martinez
We say: Lazio 1-1 Porto (Porto win 3-2 on aggregate)
With history certainly on their side - Porto have won 35 of 43 European ties after securing a first-leg advantage at home - the visitors should make it through to the last 16.
Lazio are primarily focused on their push for a top four finish in Serie A, and with some selection issues up front they may not be able to finish off a side full of confidence thanks to recent results.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.21%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 30.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
