Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.16%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
62.84% ( 0.53) | 21.05% ( -0.22) | 16.11% ( -0.32) |
Both teams to score 50.61% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.52% ( 0.36) | 45.48% ( -0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.18% ( 0.34) | 67.81% ( -0.34) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.14% ( 0.28) | 13.86% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.75% ( 0.55) | 41.24% ( -0.55) |
Espanyol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.75% ( -0.19) | 41.25% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.22% ( -0.17) | 77.78% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
1-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.16% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.76% Total : 62.83% | 1-1 @ 10% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.04% | 0-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.78% Total : 16.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 24 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 23 |
4 | Villarreal | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 21 |
5 | Osasuna | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 19 |
8 | Mallorca | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 16 |
11 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
12 | GironaGirona | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
13 | Sevilla | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 15 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
15 | Leganes | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
16 | Getafe | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
17 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
18 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 8 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |