Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 57.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
57.7% | 22.73% | 19.56% |
Both teams to score 51.86% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.81% | 47.18% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.58% | 69.41% |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.92% | 16.08% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.54% | 45.46% |
Espanyol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.8% | 38.2% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.03% | 74.96% |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
1-0 @ 11.22% 2-0 @ 10.25% 2-1 @ 9.87% 3-0 @ 6.25% 3-1 @ 6.02% 3-2 @ 2.89% 4-0 @ 2.86% 4-1 @ 2.75% 4-2 @ 1.32% 5-0 @ 1.04% 5-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.21% Total : 57.69% | 1-1 @ 10.8% 0-0 @ 6.14% 2-2 @ 4.75% 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.73% | 0-1 @ 5.91% 1-2 @ 5.2% 0-2 @ 2.84% 1-3 @ 1.67% 2-3 @ 1.52% 0-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.51% Total : 19.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 28 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 26 |
4 | Villarreal | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
5 | Osasuna | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 20 |
8 | Real Sociedad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Mallorca | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 18 |
10 | GironaGirona | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
13 | Sevilla | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
14 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
15 | AlavesAlaves | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
17 | Getafe | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
18 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 9 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |