La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 24

Mar 5, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano
0 - 0
Athletic Bilbao

Mumin (21')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions

Last Game: Cadiz 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, February 25 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Osasuna 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday, March 1 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

This has all the makings of a very interesting match, and cases can be made for both sides to pick up all three points. We are expecting a really close affair, though, ultimately settling on a 1-1 draw, which would not be the worst result in the world for either side at this stage of the season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
38.53% ( 0.32)	27.47% ( -0.13)	34% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 49.25% (

0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.63% (

0.48)

56.37% (

-0.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.61% (

0.39)

77.39% (

-0.39)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.59% (

0.42)

28.41% (

-0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.83% (

0.52)

64.16% (

-0.53)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.8% (

0.12)

31.2% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.45% (

0.14)

67.54% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Rayo Vallecano 38.52%

Athletic Bilbao 34%

Draw 27.47%

Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.8% Total : 38.52%	1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47%	0-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 34%