Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
38.53% ( 0.32) | 27.47% ( -0.13) | 34% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 49.25% ( 0.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.63% ( 0.48) | 56.37% ( -0.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.61% ( 0.39) | 77.39% ( -0.39) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.59% ( 0.42) | 28.41% ( -0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.83% ( 0.52) | 64.16% ( -0.53) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.8% ( 0.12) | 31.2% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.45% ( 0.14) | 67.54% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.8% Total : 38.52% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 15 |
2 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
3 | Real Madrid | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
4 | Villarreal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
5 | AlavesAlaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
7 | Celta Vigo | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 9 |
8 | Real BetisBetis | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
9 | Mallorca | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
11 | GironaGirona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
12 | Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
13 | Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
14 | Sevilla | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
15 | Leganes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
16 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
17 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 4 |
18 | Getafe | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
19 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 |
20 | Valencia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 |
> La Liga Full Table |