We said: Getafe 1-2 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo are on a roll at the moment, and we can see the surprise top-four challengers picking up another three points here. Getafe's home form this season is the second-worst in the league, and although they were much improved against Atletico, Rayo have enough quality to secure another three points on Sunday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest Getafe win was 1-0 (11.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.