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Kazakhstan national football team
Nations League | Relegation Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Mar 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
 
Moldova national football team

Kazakhstan
0 - 1
Moldova


Vassiljev (44'), Alip (87'), Dosmagambetov (116')
FT
(aet)
Armas (13')
Rata (27'), Reabciuk (74'), Armas (81'), Mandricenco (85'), Ionita (120+2')
Kazakhstan win 5-4 on penalties

Preview: Kazakhstan vs. Moldova - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Kazakhstan and Moldova, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Kazakhstan hold a 2-1 advantage going into the second leg of their Nations League C relegation playoff against Moldova.

The Hawks came from behind in the first leg in Chisinau, as Sergei Maliy's header and an own goal from Veaceslav Posmac cancelled out Ion Nicolaescu's opener.


Match preview

France's Lucas Digne in action with Kazakhstan's Marat Bystrov on March 28, 2021© Reuters

Both countries were promoted from Nations League D in 2019 and now find themselves battling to avoid re-joining Europe's minnows.

Thursday's first leg was a first game in charge for Kazakhstan interim manager Andrei Karpovich, who is a former captain of the national team and his country's fifth-most capped player of all time.

Karpovich replaced Talgat Baysufinov, who only lasted little over a year at the helm after succeeding Michal Bilek who departed after Kazakhstan finished bottom of Group 4 in Nations League C with one win from six games.

Their only victory in the group came in the opening fixture against Lithuania in September 2020 and they then went without a competitive win until the first leg of this tie.

Kazakhstan, who are ranked 120th in the world, finished bottom of their World Cup qualifying group, drawing twice with Euro 2020 quarter-finalists Ukraine but also losing 8-0 away in France.

The transcontinental nation last won a competitive home fixture in June 2019, when San Marino were the visitors to Nur-Sultan.

Moldova's Ion Nicolaescu celebrates scoring their first goal on March 25, 2021© Reuters

Moldova are the fourth-lowest ranked country in Europe in 181st and are currently on a run of 10 successive defeats.

They have not won a competitive game since June 2019 and in fact have not beaten a side other than San Marino or Andorra in a competitive fixture since triumphing over Montenegro in 2013.

Like his opposite number, manager Serghei Clescenco is a former international and his country's fifth-most capped player. He is also Moldova's all-time top scorer with 11 goals. Clescenco's son Nicky has three caps but is not in the squad for this tie.

The 49-year-old was appointed in December, succeeding Roberto Bordin who had replaced Engin Firat less than a year earlier. Firat was the man who oversaw Moldova's unsuccessful Nations League C campaign as they picked up just one point from six matches.

Moldova were also on the wrong end of an 8-0 thrashing in World Cup qualifying last year as they were trounced by Denmark on the way to finishing bottom of their group with only one point from 10 games.

Kazakhstan Nations League form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Kazakhstan form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Moldova Nations League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Moldova form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Denmark's Lasse Schone in action with Moldova's Igor Armas Ritzau on March 28, 2021© Reuters

Kazakhstan midfielder Aybol Abiken will be pushing for a start after coming off the bench at half-time in the first leg and helping swing the game in his country's favour.

Striker Baktiyar Zaynutdinov is without a goal in his last three competitive international appearances; he has never gone four without scoring since his first such game in June 2018.

Radu Ginsari, the player in the Moldova squad with the most goals for his country (seven), is expected to start after only making the bench on Thursday.

If Serghei Clescenco wants to call on experience in this time of need, he could turn to 34-year-old 73-cap defender Igor Armas, who retired from international football last year before returning this month. He was not included in the matchday squad in the first leg.

Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Shatskiy; Bystrov, Alip, Maliy, Marochkin, Suyumbaev; Abiken, Tagybergen; Vasiljev; Zaynutdinov, Shchyotkin

Moldova possible starting lineup:
Namasco; Posmac, Bolohan, Dumbravanu; Revenco, Ionita, Rata, Reabciuk; Caimacov, Ginsari; Nicolaescu


SM words green background

We say: Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova

With Kazakhstan holding home advantage and the lead from the first leg, it would be a big surprise to see Moldova mount a comeback given that they have lost their last 10 matches. Kazakhstan should set up to defend their lead but may also nick another goal.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 46.65%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.79%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Moldova win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%).


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Data Failed

How you voted: Kazakhstan vs Moldova

Kazakhstan
68.4%
Draw
26.3%
Moldova
5.3%
38
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