Italy look to recover from their post-Euros hangover on Wednesday, as they welcome winless Lithuania to Sassuolo in World Cup Qualifying Group C.
While the Azzurri have recorded disappointing draws in the first two matches of this month's qualification triple-header, they remain clear at the top of the group and are well down the track towards Qatar 2022.
Match preview
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Held by Bulgaria at Stadio Artemio Franchi last week, Italy travelled to Switzerland in search of a result which would not only add to their tally in Group C, but also help them claim the European record for consecutive games unbeaten.
Though they managed the latter by fulfilling their 36th fixture without defeat, Roberto Mancini's men were unable to break down a much-changed Switzerland side throughout the 90 minutes, as their forwards missed a hatful of chances and midfield maestro Jorginho failed spectacularly from the spot.
The Chelsea man's 53rd-minute penalty was calmly gathered by Swiss 'Man of the Match', goalkeeper Yann Sommer, as Italy were ultimately shut out by their Alpine rivals in Basel.
Nonetheless, the European champions have not lost anywhere since 2018 and are unlikely to see that streak ended as they host a team short of confidence after an eight-match losing run - including a 2-0 defeat to the Italians in Vilnius last March.
While Lithuania seem destined for the wooden spoon, last weekend's opponents remain Italy's only credible rivals for the sole automatic qualification spot - trailing the Azzurri by four points but with two games in hand - so a home victory on Wednesday is essential.
La Nazionale are still in pole position in Group C, and their second continental title in July secures their status as one of the favourites to lift the World Cup again late next year. First, though, they must regain their clinical edge and take care of business against the Lithuanians.
Yet to get off the mark in a challenging five-team group, Lithuania's latest reverse came at the hands of Bulgaria on Sunday, as they were beaten by Ivalyo Chochev's late effort for the home side.
That marked a fourth straight qualifying loss for a nation which has never qualified for the finals of any major tournament, and the last time they even avoided defeat was as long ago as November last year - a 2-1 Nations League win over Kazakhstan.
Even before the current campaign kicked off, the Rinktine's record of just one win during qualification for the 2018 World Cup in nearby Russia indicated how tall their task would be.
Head coach Valdas Ivanauskas, formerly in charge of Hearts and the Under-21s during a nomadic managerial career, recently succeeded Valdas Urbonas but has seen no improvement in results under his watch.
Therefore, Lithuania's hopes of battling Bulgaria to avoid Group C's bottom spot also seem to have gone by the wayside, so the team from the small Baltic state are simply playing for pride from now on.
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Team News
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After the goalless draw in Switzerland, Roberto Mancini indicated that several of his players were understandably tired, and there will be some changes to the Italy XI on Wednesday night.
As the Azzurri had numerous chances and failed to take them - with Domenico Berardi and Ciro Immobile particularly culpable - a fresh look to the forward line could be in order. To that end, both Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean are in contention for a place at centre-forward, but Andrea Belotti previously withdrew from the squad due to injury.
Of the starters in Basel, 10 were in the side that beat the Swiss at the Euros this summer, but further changes to the established side could include a start for young Alessandro Bastoni at the back and an opportunity for Roma's Nicolo Zaniolo to confirm his comeback in midfield.
The visitors, meanwhile, are again expected to be without new manager Valdas Ivanauskas, following the 55-year-old's positive test for COVID-19 last week. Appointed just weeks ago, Ivanauskas has been in isolation during his team's two defeats so far this month.
Lithuania's most-capped player and captain, Saulius Mikoliunas has previously had to withdraw with an injury, so either Justas Lasickas or Rolandas Baravykas will deputise at right-back.
In the absence of Mikoliunas, goalkeeper Ernestas Setkus, 36, is the oldest member of the squad, but his heroics against Bulgaria guarantee him a 38th cap between the posts.
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Bastoni, Bonucci, Emerson; Locatelli, Verratti, Zaniolo; Chiesa, Raspadori, Insigne
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Setkus; Baravykas, Satkus, Utkus, Vaitkunas; Megelaitis, Simkus, Verbickas; Novikovas, Cernych; Dubickas
We say: Italy 2-0 Lithuania
Having started their campaign with three successive 2-0 wins, Italy can get back on track this week with a similar result, even if they choose to rest some weary legs, as Mancini has intimated.
The next generation of Azzurri attackers may have an opportunity to shine against a lowly Lithuanian side ready for the taking, and are poised to make their mark.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 69.8%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 6.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 23.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (18.88%) and 3-0 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.02%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
