A new chapter in the history of the Houston Dynamo begins on Sunday, as they open their Major League Soccer regular season at home to Real Salt Lake.
Orange Crush are coming off a year in which they failed to find any consistency, finishing dead-last in the Western Conference, while RSL were one of the Cinderella stories of the playoffs, making it to the Conference Finals before losing 2-0 to the Portland Timbers.
Match preview
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The idea of pressing all over the field did nothing for the Dynamo in 2021, and Tab Ramos paid the price as the American coach was sacked following a dismal campaign, in which they only won six games, the second-fewest for them in an MLS campaign.
Pat Onstad, a former goalkeeper with this team, who helped them win two MLS Cups in 2006 and 2007, is the new general manager, and Paulo Nagamura is now the coach, who himself won two titles in this league.
Onstad and Nagamura have a tall task ahead of them to try and bring an identity to this side that often looked lost and out of sorts last season.
Scoring goals was a prominent sore spot for them in their previous campaign, netting a mere 36, only one more than the lowest-scoring side, Austin.
The most substantial part of their team heading into 2022 could be a robust defensive unit, who are also mobile and capable of joining the attack, which might be needed as plenty of questions surround their quality in the final third.
They begin the year with three of their opening four matches at home, which might be what they need to start the campaign on the right foot as this group had a rough time on the road last season, failing to win a single match.
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With some new owners in place, Claret and Cobalt enter the 2022 campaign with more clarity and optimism than we have seen in a while.
RSL spent their share of time chasing games last season but always seemed to provide a magical moment at the end of a match, snatching plenty of victories from the jaws of defeat.
One of the things that makes them dangerous is their ability to get multiple runners into the box, although that aggressive approach from Pablo Mastroeni also leaves them susceptible to the counter.
Salt Lake have built a state-of-the-art academy facility with plenty of young players showing tremendous upside, but many experts believe that they need a talent upgrade to compete with the elite sides this year.
They do have some outstanding individuals who carried them on their back a season ago, namely Damir Kreilach, who was head and shoulders, their most valuable player, scoring 16 goals to go along with eight assists.
While it is clear that this team have quality in the final third, one question which remains unanswered is who can emerge as a chance creator for them this season and provide some versatility between central midfield and the attack.
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Team News
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Maximiliano Urruti left the Dynamo in free agency, moving to the Texas capital of Austin, while veteran Boniek Garcia is back in his native Honduras, signing with local side Olimpia.
Sebastian Ferreira was their first and probably biggest offseason signing, bringing with him a proven pedigree for goals in Paraguay and Mexico, while Steve Clark should be an upgrade in goal after he helped the Portland Timbers to the MLS Cup Final a season ago.
Fafa Picault led this team in goals and assists in 2021, while Adalberto Carrasquilla could add another dimension to their midfield, and the pairing of Teenage Hadebe and Tim Parker should be reasonably solid.
Albert Rusnak signed with the Seattle Sounders at the end of this season, leaving a massive void in the RSL midfield as he had 41 goals and 39 assists in his career at Salt Lake, while Sergio Cordova will join this team on loan from FC Augsburg.
Aaron Herrera became a solid contributor from the back a year ago, providing 10 assists, while Johan Kappelhof should help their defensive shape, coming over from the Chicago Fire, where he made nearly 150 appearances.
Rubio Rubin chipped in with eight goals in 2021, while Justin Meram had eight assists and goalkeeper David Ochoa was among their stars in their playoff run.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Clark; Lundqvist, Hadebe, Parker, Zeca; Rodriguez, Vera, Carrasquilla; Picault, Ferreira, Baird
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Brody, Glad, Silva, Herrera; Ruiz, Luiz; Menendez, Kreilach, Rubin; Wood
We say: Houston Dynamo 1-1 Real Salt Lake
Early on, things will be brand new for Houston, which may not be a bad thing with the fresh faces who will be eager to make an immediate impact.
It remains unknown who will fill the shoes of Rusnak in Salt Lake, but with the kind of individual quality they possess, earning a point is certainly a strong possibility in this one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 27.09% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 0-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
