Atletico Mineiro can end a seven-match winless run in all competitions and a streak of nearly a decade without a victory at Gremio when they travel to Arena do Gremio this Saturday.
Last Sunday, Imortal Tricolor gave up a pair of late strikes, losing 2-0 at home to Botafogo as they remain a point behind Flamengo for second in the Brasileiro Serie A table, while Atletico held onto a 0-0 result versus Goias earlier this week.
Match preview
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It was another match where Gremio had the majority of the possession and created plenty of chances, but uncharacteristically their finishing let them down against Botafogo.
That was only the second time domestically this season that this group had failed to find the back of the net on home soil and the first time they had walked away empty-handed from a league fixture in Porto-Alegre.
A functional 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 formation traditionally employed by Renato Gaucho seems to be well suited to these players, who are full of creativity and flair, with that free-flowing approach enabling them to consistently create scoring opportunities, notching the fourth-most goals in the league this year (24).
On the opposite side, their man-marking system and intense pressing has left them vulnerable, with Clube de Todos conceding more goals than anyone in the top half of the Serie A table (20).
With 26 points after 14 matches, Gremio have improved by four points from where they were a season ago when competing in the second tier of Brazilian football, while they have picked up their highest total at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 2017 (28).
Throughout July, this team have been rescued by many late goals, winning their opening match this month over Bahia (2-1) thanks to a 95th-minute strike before coming back to draw them 1-1 on two other occasions in the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals, advancing into the next round 4-3 on penalties.
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The 2023 league season for Galo has been a far cry from what we have seen in the recent past, as the 2021 Serie A champions have already suffered four defeats, just two fewer than what they incurred two years ago throughout the 38-match campaign.
Luiz Felipe Scolari has been brought in to try to clean up the mess left by Eduardo Coudet, who saw his side drop points in five of their opening 10 domestic affairs this year.
Big Phil, the man who guided Brazil to their last World Cup title in 2002, has been unable to get much out of these players so far, as Mineiro are winless in his six matches at the helm, dropping four points when scoring first.
Since 2012, Galo have only finished in the bottom half of the Serie A table once (2019), but that is where they find themselves at the moment with just 21 points after 15 domestic contests, as they are currently holding onto the final Copa Sudamericana qualifying position in 12th.
The club from Belo Horizonte have been at their best this season on the road, claiming at least a point in seven of nine away contests, including three victories, though they have not beaten Gremio on their home field since a 1-0 domestic triumph in September 2013.
Atletico have given up the fewest goals among teams in the bottom half of the table thus far (14), conceding one or fewer in six of their nine away fixtures in this competition.
Team News
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Gremio could be missing as many as five players this weekend, as Pedro Geromel and Fabio da Silva have sprained knees, Jhonata Robert has a problem with his ACL, while Pepe and Everton Galdino are dealing with thigh injuries, and they are all expected to return to the lineup by the end of the month.
Their only league triumph this month came at the beginning of July, when Franco Cristaldo and Gustavo Martins netted in a 2-1 win over Bahia, while Cristaldo, Mathias Villasanti, Bitello, Luis Suarez and Andre Henrique each scored in their last domestic home victory at the end of June (5-1 over Coritiba).
Villasanti equalised 18 minutes from the end of their second leg Copa do Brasil tie with Bahia this week, and despite Bruno Alves and Bitello missing their spot kicks, Gabriel Grando stopped Cicinho and Gabriel Xavier from 12 yards away, helping them advance into the last four of that competition.
Hyoran is still dealing with a sore ankle for Atletico, Bruno Fuchs and Matias Zaracho each have thigh issues, Cristian Pavon is recovering from a groin injury while Guilherme Arana will be suspended after his straight red card in stoppage time versus Goias.
Everson made three stops in that encounter for his fifth clean sheet of the year, putting him one behind Fabio of Fluminense for third in the league, while Hulk returned to the lineup after missing their match against Corinthians through suspension with the top goalscorer in Serie A two years ago leading this team with six strikes domestically in 2023.
One of their six domestic defeats in their title-winning campaign in 2021 came in Porto-Alegre versus Gremio, when former midfielder Calebe set up a pair of goals for them, while Eduardo Vargas and Hyoran were on the scoresheet in a narrow 4-3 defeat.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Grando; Uvini, Alves, Cuiabano; Pedro, Villasanti, Carballo, Reinaldo; Ferreira, Cristaldo; Suarez
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Saravia, Rabello, Jemerson, Rubens; Patrick, Otavio; Franco, Paulinho, Vargas; Hulk
We say: Gremio 1-1 Atletico Mineiro
Galo have been sharp defensively away from home in this competition, and we believe they will be able to limit the Gremio scoring opportunities on Saturday and find a way to claim a point against an unstable backline.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
