Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 51.77%. A win for El Salvador had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest El Salvador win was 0-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.