Galatasaray and Fenerbahce meet in the first Intercontinental Derby of the season in the Turkish Super Lig on Sunday.
Just one point separates the two teams in the table going into the game, with Gala fourth on 21 points and the Yellow Canaries seventh on 20 points.
Match preview
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Both clubs were involved in an enthralling title race last season but ended up narrowly losing out to Besiktas; Galatasaray finished second on goal difference only and Fenerbahce were two points further behind in third.
Traditionally the two powerhouses of Turkish football, the pair's grip on domestic dominance has slipped in recent years.
Galatasaray were last crowned champions in 2019 and have not gone three years without the title since 2011; they trail current leaders Trabzonspor by nine points.
Fatih Terim is in his fourth spell as manager and has not lost in seven games against Fenerbahce since returning, although five of those have been draws.
Gala have won four of their last six Super Lig games, but drew 1-1 against Fatih Karagumruk a fortnight ago as Mostafa Mohamed scored an 88th-minute equaliser.
Terim's side have recorded four victories from five league matches at Nef Stadium this season, conceding just three goals.
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Fenerbahce have not won the title since 2014, while their third-placed finish last season was their highest ranking in three years.
Portuguese Vitor Pereira was appointed manager in the summer and got off to an excellent start in the dugout, winning six of the opening eight league matches to earn top spot at the start of October.
However, since then, Fenerbahce have gone four matches without victory and a 2-2 draw against Kayserispor before the international break ended a run of three straight defeats.
The Yellow Canaries were 2-0 down with five minutes of normal time left, before Miha Zajc halved the deficit and then substitute Mesut Ozil scored a 99th-minute penalty to equalise in dramatic circumstances.
Fenerbahce, searching for their first win over Galatasaray since April 2017, have not kept a clean sheet since the end of August.
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Team News
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Fatih Terim is set to give the nod to Mostafa Mohamed up-front after the Egyptian came off the bench to score against Fatih Karagumruk.
That is likely to see Halil Dervisoglu moved out wide if Terim sticks with a lone striker system, or the pair could start in attack together.
Romanian Olimpiu Morutan returned from international duty with a slight injury issue but trained on Friday and is expected to feature.
Mesut Ozil is expected to start for Fenerbahce after only being fit enough for the bench before the international break.
Irfan Kahveci suffered an injury against Kayserispor but has recovered; Luiz Gustavo and Enner Valencia remain sidelined.
Goalkeeper Berke Ozer has not trained in recent days in the hope of easing a back strain; first choice shot-stopper Altay Bayindir is already out.
Galatasaray possible starting lineup:
Muslera; Yedlin, Nelsson, Marcao, Bayram; Kutlu; Dervisoglu, Morutan, Cicaldau, Akturkoglu; Mohamed
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Ozer; Tisserand, Kim, Szalai; Zajc; Sangare, Meyer, Yandas, Ozil; Kahveci, Berisha
We say: Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahce
Not only will both sides want to secure local bragging rights, they will also be desperate not to lose any more ground in the title race. That will make an already feisty fixture even more intense, but we think that Galatasaray should just have the edge given their home record and Fenerbahce's worrying run of form.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
