Flamengo can move into second place in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table when they host Bahia on Thursday at the Maracana.
The defending domestic league champions failed to keep their cool in a physical affair with Chapecoense on Monday, drawing 2-2, while Bahia extended their unbeaten run to seven in a row in league play, thanks to a 1-0 win on Sunday versus Sao Paulo.
Match preview
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Having games in hand will only do you good if you can win them, and Mengao failed to do so earlier this week, in what many had anticipated being an easy three points versus the last place team.
As a result, Renato Gaucho and his side have lost more ground in the title chase, currently in third, 11 points behind Atletico Mineiro but having played one match fewer.
They remain a strong attacking side and a dangerous one in transition, but in recent weeks, they have gotten a little complacent, squandering a two-goal lead to draw Athletico Paranaense last week and failing to take advantage with an extra man for nearly a half-hour versus Chape.
Coming into this encounter, the finalists for the 2021 Copa Libertadores are on a roll at home, unbeaten in their last five league fixtures and conceding only once over that stretch.
The last time that they played Bahia, they were anything but complacent as they burned them early and often, firing 10 shots on target and winning 5-0.
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A recent run of positive results has helped Guto Ferreira and his team put a little distance between themselves and the bottom four clubs in the Brazilian top flight, currently sitting in 15th, with a six-point cushion over Sport Recife, who are in the final relegation position.
This club based in Salvador have dug themselves out of relegation by stifling their opponents in the middle of the field and not allowing them much build-up or quality scoring opportunities, maintaining clean sheets in consecutive matches.
In the second half of the season, we have seen them play at their best when facing the top sides according to the standings, earning a 4-2 victory against Fortaleza, drawing Bragantino and holding Palmeiras off the scoresheet, conceding only two shots on goal to them in a 0-0 draw last month.
Bahia narrowly escaped relegation last season, finishing only three points above that line, and with eight more games to play, they will want to increase their advantage over the teams currently in the relegation zone.
While they will have to be assured that they do not fall into one of those final four spots, earning a trip to the Copa Sudamericana next year is still within reach, as they are currently only two points behind America Mineiro for the final place in that competition in 2022.
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Team News
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Giorgian de Arrascaeta is out with a muscle injury, which has been bothering the Flamengo attacking midfielder since the middle of October, while Everton Ribeiro will be suspended after being red-carded in the 89th minute on Monday.
Gabriel Barbosa scored a hat-trick in the first meeting against Bahia this year, as he has eight this season, putting him one behind Bruno Henrique for second on the team, while Michael scored once in their draw against Chape and leads the team with 10 in the domestic campaign.
There were four changes to the starting 11 on Monday as Gabriel Batista replaced Diego Alves in goal, while Bruno Viana, Matheuzinho and Joao Gomes were preferred over Mauricio Isla, David Luiz and Andreas Pereira.
Rossi, who leads Bahia in assists this year with five, scored only his second goal of the domestic season on Sunday which held up as the winner against Sao Paulo.
Over the weekend, Nino Paraiba replaced Juninho Capixaba on defence, Matheus Bahia began that match at fullback instead of Renan Guedes, Lucas Mugni replaced Jonas in the midfield and Gilberto started as the lone striker rather than Hugo Rodallega.
Gilberto is easily the top attacking threat for this side, with 12 goals to lead all players in Serie A at the moment, which is one more than Hulk and Yuri Alberto.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, Caio, Luiz, Ramon; Michael, Vitinho, Arao, Pereira; B. Henrique, Barbosa
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Paraiba, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Araujo; Nascimento, Daniel, Mugni, Capixaba; Gilberto
We say: Flamengo 2-0 Bahia
Bahia have put together a solid run of matches which could very well keep them in Serie A beyond this season, but aside from Gilberto, they do not have any other offensive weapons that will concern Mengao.
A draw to the worst team in the league should serve as a warning to this multi-talented Flamengo side, who are sharp defensively on home soil, and they have not had any issues scoring against Bahia with 17 goals against them in their previous four encounters.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 68.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 11.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.47%) and 3-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
