Inter Milan travel to Florence for Serie A's Friday night fixture, aiming to take maximum points from mid-table Fiorentina as they continue their pursuit of the elusive Scudetto.
Having just lost the first leg of their Coppa Italia tie with reigning league champions Juventus, Antonio Conte's men arrive at Stadio Artemio Franchi just two points from the summit - with the hosts now looking safe and stable at 12th place in the standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Leading the Inter line alongside Alexis Sanchez in the rare absence of Romelu Lukaku in midweek, new dad Lautaro Martinez celebrated in style by opening the scoring against Juventus at San Siro. However, the Bianconeri then demonstrated their re-found resilience to ultimately take a 2-1 lead back to Turin ahead of next week's second leg.
With all still to play for, despite that chastening defeat in their own back yard, the Nerazzurri return to league action on Friday evening fully focused on reaping a fourth win from five top-flight outings.
Despite trailing stadium-sharing rivals AC Milan by a couple of points - a gap which has narrowed significantly in recent weeks - their 49 goals scored (at an average of 2.23 per game) leads the way in Italy and represents one of the best returns in the top five European leagues. Furthermore, a tally of 23 Serie A goals conceded is bettered only by Napoli.
Antonio Conte's outfit have lost only once on the road so far and have very recent experience of winning on Florentine turf, with a 2-1 cup triumph in January's last-16 tie at the Franchi seeing them stay on track for a potential first domestic double since the Jose Mourinho era.
The return of top scorer Lukaku post-Coppa Italia suspension - a ban enforced due to his now infamous confrontation with Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the previous round - will be warmly welcomed by Conte, who is all too aware that much of his game plan rests on the Belgian's broad shoulders. Without his nous, experience and vastly-improved hold-up play, Inter can look relatively lightweight up front - and will continue to do so, as a much-touted Alexis Sanchez-Edin Dzeko swap failed to materialise by the close of the transfer window.
Even lacking further reinforcements to a well-stocked squad of seasoned professionals, ever-demanding coach Conte will expect his current charges to set about the much-improved Fiorentina defence with characteristic zeal this weekend.
© Reuters
Since Cesare Prandelli's arrival in late autumn, Fiorentina have gained in structure and defensive discipline but last time out, against struggling Torino, it was the descent of red mist which cost them all three points.
Franck Ribery's brilliantly worked goal came between two entirely merited dismissals for the Viola, with first Gaetano Castrovilli then Nikola Milenkovic - for a gratuitous headbutt on Andrea Belotti - being sent off. Soon after the Serb defender's exit, Belotti snaffled an overdue goal to equalise for the grateful Granata.
Having finished the game with just nine men - subsequent suspensions are poised to disrupt Prandelli's plans for the visit of Inter - it was an ill-disciplined climax to a fixture they were perhaps favourites to win.
Since Ribery has joined Dusan Vlahovic up front, Fiorentina have offered a more pronounced threat in the final third, but still have issues to resolve at the back in both the short and medium term.
Last week's 'bad boy' Milenkovic has already refused a contract extension and will most likely be sold this summer to one of several high-profile suitors, while captain German Pezzella could be on the way out too, after recent errors have come amid talk of the club withholding a new deal.
As veteran Martin Caceres is also tipped to exit and has played a more peripheral role this term, the Viola may have only the younger breed - including Igor, Lucas Martinez Quarta and Luca Ranieri (currently on loan at SPAL) - left as candidates for Prandelli's favoured back three.
More immediately, the Tuscan side must get to grips with an Inter team full of determination to fight for the title - and the Milan giants are unbeaten in seven Serie A games against them, with their last defeat coming in a memorable 5-4 home win for Fiorentina in April 2017.
Fiorentina Serie A form: DLWLWD
Fiorentina form (all competitions): LWLLWD
Inter Milan Serie A form: WLDWDW
Inter Milan form (all competitions): WWDWWL
Team News
© Reuters
Centre-back Nikola Milenkovic and midfielder Gaetano Castrovilli will both miss out for Fiorentina after seeing red against Torino, while Brazilian defender Igor remains a doubt after going off with injury last Friday. Lucas Martinez Quarta should deputise for Milenkovic, with Erick Pulgar or Borja Valero in line to replace Castrovilli.
New signings Kevin Malcuit, from Napoli, and controversial Russian striker Aleksandr Kokorin are both short of match fitness, with the latter training alone since joining from Spartak Moscow. As Malcuit is unlikely to start, Martin Caceres could come in on the right of Cesare Prandelli's 3-5-2.
Inter faced Juventus as recently as Tuesday and will tackle them again on the same day next week. Therefore, Roberto Gagliardini could come into midfield in place of Nicolo Barella, with the recently reinvented Christian Eriksen a possible replacement for Marcelo Brozovic. Suspended for the semi-final second leg, Arturo Vidal should continue in the central three.
The much-missed Achraf Hakimi and Romelu Lukaku are expected to return instead of Matteo Darmian and Alexis Sanchez, after missing out in midweek due to suspension, while Antonio Conte is tipped to retain his first-choice centre-back trio and ever-present goalkeeper Samir Handanovic despite the quick turnaround.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Martinez Quarta, Pezzella, Igor; Caceres, Bonaventura, Amrabat, Pulgar, Biraghi; Ribery, Vlahovic
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Gagliardini, Eriksen, Vidal, Young; Martinez, Lukaku
We say: Fiorentina 1-3 Inter Milan
Romelu Lukaku has a tally of 14 league goals so far - an impressive return, but still trailing behind Cristiano Ronaldo in the Capocannoniere standings - and will be eager for more on Friday.
Reunited with 'Lu-La' partner Lautaro Martinez and marauding wing-back Achraf Hakimi, the brilliant Belgian can fire Inter to another away victory against a disrupted Fiorentina defence at the Franchi.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 56.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 21.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 2-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
