Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadionul CPTF

Moldova
3 - 2
Poland

Nicolaescu (48', 79'), Baboglo (85')
Baboglo (51'), Nicolaescu (81'), Railean (90'), Reabciuk (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Milik (12'), Lewandowski (34')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Moldova and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moldova

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Albania 2-0 Moldova
Saturday, June 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Czech Republic	3	5	7
2	Albania	2	1	3
3	Poland	2	-1	3
4	Moldova	3	-2	2
5	Faroe Islands	2	-3	1

Poland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Poland 1-0 Germany
Friday, June 16 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Czech Republic	3	5	7
2	Albania	2	1	3
3	Poland	2	-1	3
4	Moldova	3	-2	2
5	Faroe Islands	2	-3	1

Moldova have clearly tightened things up a little since appointing Clescenco, with their goalless draw against Czech Republic in March showing they are not the pushovers they have been in previous qualifying campaigns. However, Poland should be full of confidence after defeating Germany on Friday, and we can envisage another tight victory for them to bolster their hopes of claiming a top two spot in Group E. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 23.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Moldova win it was 1-0 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result
Moldova	Draw	Poland
23.08% ( -20.85)	24.4% ( 2.7)	52.51% ( 18.15)

Both teams to score 51.6% (

-18.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50% (

-20.16)

49.99% (

20.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.02% (

-20.99)

71.98% (

20.99)

Moldova Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.71% (

-21.79)

36.29% (

21.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.92% (

-30.58)

73.07% (

30.58)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.99% (

-0.62)

19% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.44% (

-1.04)

50.56% (

1.04)

Score Analysis

Moldova 23.08%

Poland 52.51%

Draw 24.4%

Moldova	Draw	Poland
1-0 @ 6.99% ( 1.84) 2-1 @ 5.88% ( -2.53) 2-0 @ 3.54% ( -1.43) 3-1 @ 1.99% ( -3.43) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( -2.94) 3-0 @ 1.2% ( -2) Other @ 1.83% Total : 23.08%	1-1 @ 11.6% ( 2.88) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( 4.23) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -2.24) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -1.68) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.4%	0-1 @ 11.45% ( 6.94) 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 2.26) 0-2 @ 9.51% ( 5.69) 1-3 @ 5.34% ( 1.17) 0-3 @ 5.26% ( 3.11) 2-3 @ 2.7% ( -1.32) 1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.45) 0-4 @ 2.19% ( 1.27) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.58) Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.51%