It is hard to envisage many goals being scored between two limited outfits, but we expect Azerbaijan to edge a tight encounter. The visitors are playing at a higher Nations League level for a reason, with their superior international ranking suggesting that they should be able to beat Moldova. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.

Result
Moldova	Draw	Azerbaijan
43.33% ( -0.01)	24.13% ( 0)	32.53% ( 0)

Both teams to score 59.89% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.52% (

-0.01)

42.47% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.12% (

-0.01)

64.88% (

0.01)

Moldova Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.2% (

-0.01)

19.8% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.13% (

-0.01)

51.86% (

0.01)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.68% (

-0)

25.32% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.9% (

-0)

60.1% (

Score Analysis

Moldova 43.34%

Azerbaijan 32.53%

Draw 24.13%

Moldova	Draw	Azerbaijan
2-1 @ 9.03% 1-0 @ 8.12% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.58% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.36% Other @ 3.07% Total : 43.34%	1-1 @ 11.15% 2-2 @ 6.2% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.01% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.13%	1-2 @ 7.66% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.89% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.73% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.51% 2-3 @ 2.84% 0-3 @ 2.17% 1-4 @ 1.2% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.56% Total : 32.53%