Competition for places - both in Belgium's Euro 2024 squad and their starting XI - should ensure the home side still aim to impress, despite already wrapping up qualification. Replicating an historic achievement just three days after seeing off Sweden will be too much to ask for Azerbaijan, who are set to suffer their fifth defeat from eight Group F games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 66.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 13.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
Belgium	Draw	Azerbaijan
66.89% ( -0.03)	19.23% ( 0.03)	13.89% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 51.17% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.08% (

-0.1)

41.92% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.67% (

-0.1)

64.33% (

0.1)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.38% (

-0.04)

11.62% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.38% (

-0.09)

36.62% (

0.08)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.9% (

-0.05)

42.1% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.48% (

-0.04)

78.52% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Belgium 66.87%

Azerbaijan 13.89%

Draw 19.23%

Belgium	Draw	Azerbaijan
2-0 @ 11.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 10.52% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.13% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.04% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.79% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.69% Total : 66.87%	1-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.89% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.99% Total : 19.23%	0-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.94% 0-2 @ 1.83% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 1.53% Total : 13.89%