Both sides will be keen to strengthen their bid for qualification to the knockout rounds of the Europa Conference League as the group stages draw to a close. In light of this, we expect Fiorentina to have too much for Hearts which will result in a comfortable victory for the home team.
Their attacking players will have too much for a makeshift Hearts defence, resulting in the margin of victory being the same as the 3-0 victory in Edinburgh last week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Hearts had a probability of 15.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.15%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Hearts win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.06) 
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