Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 60.61%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 17.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.