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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 62.91%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 3-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
62.91% ( 0.02) | 18.84% ( -0) | 18.25% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 63.28% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.86% ( -0.01) | 31.14% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.45% ( -0.01) | 52.55% ( 0.02) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.46% ( 0) | 9.54% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.04% ( 0) | 31.96% ( 0) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.95% ( -0.02) | 30.05% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.82% ( -0.02) | 66.18% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.45% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.74% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.48% ( -0) 4-1 @ 4.38% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.63% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 3.91% Total : 62.91% | 1-1 @ 8.1% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.87% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.8% ( -0) Other @ 0.36% Total : 18.84% | 1-2 @ 4.87% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.45% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.07% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0) Other @ 3.62% Total : 18.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 9 | 28 | 30 |
2 | Ajax | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 25 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
4 | Feyenoord | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
5 | FC Twente | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 21 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
10 | NECNijmegen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
11 | Willem II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Heracles | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Heerenveen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
15 | Groningen | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
16 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 28 | -18 | 4 |
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