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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 62.91%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 3-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
62.91% ( 0.02) | 18.84% ( -0) | 18.25% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 63.28% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.86% ( -0.01) | 31.14% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.45% ( -0.01) | 52.55% ( 0.02) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.46% ( 0) | 9.54% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.04% ( 0) | 31.96% ( 0) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.95% ( -0.02) | 30.05% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.82% ( -0.02) | 66.18% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.45% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.74% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.48% ( -0) 4-1 @ 4.38% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.63% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 3.91% Total : 62.91% | 1-1 @ 8.1% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.87% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.8% ( -0) Other @ 0.36% Total : 18.84% | 1-2 @ 4.87% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.45% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.07% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0) Other @ 3.62% Total : 18.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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