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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 20.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.49%) and 1-0 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
58.46% ( 1.03) | 20.89% ( 0.01) | 20.65% ( -1.04) |
Both teams to score 59.97% ( -1.7) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.68% ( -1.51) | 37.32% ( 1.51) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.47% ( -1.64) | 59.54% ( 1.65) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.44% ( -0.18) | 12.56% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.38% ( -0.38) | 38.62% ( 0.39) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.58% ( -1.8) | 31.42% ( 1.81) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.21% ( -2.14) | 67.8% ( 2.15) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.49) 1-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.53) 3-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.14) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.05) Other @ 4% Total : 58.46% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.28) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.89% | 1-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.57% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.62% Total : 20.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
4 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |