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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 95.83%. A draw had a probability of 3.2% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 0.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 4-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.04%) and 5-0 (11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (1.5%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (0.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
95.83% | 3.2% | 0.97% |
Both teams to score 35.92% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
86.59% | 13.41% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
71.83% | 28.16% |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
98.83% | 1.17% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
93.6% | 6.4% |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
36.34% | 63.65% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
7.59% | 92.41% |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
4-0 @ 12.32% 3-0 @ 11.04% 5-0 @ 11% 6-0 @ 8.19% 2-0 @ 7.43% 4-1 @ 5.57% 7-0 @ 5.22% 3-1 @ 4.99% 5-1 @ 4.97% 6-1 @ 3.7% 2-1 @ 3.35% 1-0 @ 3.33% 8-0 @ 2.91% 7-1 @ 2.36% 9-0 @ 1.45% 8-1 @ 1.32% 4-2 @ 1.26% 3-2 @ 1.13% 5-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 3.15% Total : 95.8% | 1-1 @ 1.5% Other @ 1.7% Total : 3.2% | Other @ 0.97% Total : 0.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |