As La Liga emerges from its winter break, Elche start 2022 by welcoming Granada to Estadio Martinez Valero on Sunday.
While the home side were beaten by a late Barcelona strike last time out, their visitors paused for the festive season having posted back-to-back wins - the second coming against reigning champions Atletico Madrid.
Match preview
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In the space of barely a minute during their pre-Christmas trip to Camp Nou, La Liga strugglers Elche managed to pull themselves back from two goals down against a youthful Barcelona side, raising hopes of a famous win.
However, the hosts' Nico Gonzalez then intervened to seal a dramatic 3-2 victory for the fortunate Blaugrana - consigning the Valencian outfit to a ninth league defeat of the campaign.
In all, Los Franjiverdes came out on top in just three of their 18 games in the first half of the season, which has left them 17th in the table - separated from the relegation zone only by goal difference - so head coach Francisco will be seeking an improvement heading into the new year.
The former Girona manager was appointed in November - initially until the end of the current campaign - after Fran Escriba was shown the door, and Elche have since picked up a win over Cadiz and a couple of Copa del Rey triumphs too.
They are winless in each of their last eight top-flight meetings with Sunday's opponents, however, and last scored against them in La Liga back in 1975. Before they resume their Copa quest with a tie against Almeria next week, then, a rare league win would provide a big morale boost, given their history in this fixture.
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Perhaps disheartened that the winter break intervened when it did, Granada return to competitive action having finished off an eventful year with an impressive pair of wins.
Having finished high enough to qualify for continental competition for the first time, 2021 started with a memorable run to the Europa League quarter-finals, but the current campaign has seen Robert Moreno's side slip into the bottom half of the Primera Division standings.
Lying 12th at the halfway point, El Grana were unbeaten in three league games since losing to Real Madrid in November, before picking up six points from six in back-to-back home fixtures against Mallorca and Atletico Madrid just before the winter break.
Although they were eliminated from the Copa del Rey by fourth-tier Mancha Real in between, Granada will treasure their triumph over Atleti, in which they shocked the champions with a 2-1 success at Los Carmenes.
Under pressure, they remained resolute after Joao Felix fired the visitors into an early lead, and Darwin Machis equalised 15 minutes later, before veteran striker Jorge Molina delivered the decisive goal just after the hour mark.
Former Spain boss Moreno will hope, then, to retain that momentum this weekend and lead his club to a third straight top-flight victory for the first time since 2019.
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Team News
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As the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic's latest wave start to impact La Liga more profoundly than ever, Granada have confirmed that they have four cases in their first team squad and three which have afflicted members of staff.
The visitors have so far decided to withhold the names of the players involved, but Robert Moreno has been without Carlos Neva, Sergio Escudero and Carlos Bacca in training this week, in addition to Santiago Arias, who was injured against his parent club Atletico just before the break.
Maxime Gonalons, though, is back from suspension, and Domingos Duart returns after a long-term injury. Nearing his 40th year, Jorge Molina netted a hat-trick versus Mallorca and was also on target against Atleti, so should lead the line again this weekend.
Elche, meanwhile, have also been hit by a virus outbreak, and while Gonzalo Verdu has now tested negative for COVID-19, Lucas Perez, Lucas Boye, Ivan Marcone and Marseille loanee Dario Benedetto are among those who have been self-isolating, plus several members of the coaching staff.
Francisco will, therefore, field a severely depleted side on Sunday, though at least Colombian defender Johan Mojica has been able to return to training and is fit to start. Mojica's defensive colleague Pedro Bigas is also expected to be available again after a groin strain.
Wide man Tete Morente scored and provided an assist at Camp Nou last time out, so will feature in attack, as several untried academy players receive call-ups to the hosts' squad.
Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Palacios, Bigas, Gonzalez, Mojica; Morente, Pastore, Mascarell, Fidel; Piatti, Carillo
Granada possible starting lineup:
Maximiano; Quini, German, Duarte, Abram; Puertas, Milla, Gonalons, Escudero; Molina, Suarez
We say: Elche 1-3 Granada
Another fixture impacted by illness in both squads will most likely go the way of the visiting side, who were picking up pace just before the break and apparently have fewer men missing from their first-choice lineup.
Granada can therefore secure a third win on the bounce, and distance themselves still further from an Elche outfit which is destined to continue its flirt with the drop.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Elche had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Elche win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
