Sebastian Beccacece's impressive Ecuador side welcome notoriously poor-travellers Bolivia to Guayaquil in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying on Thursday night.
The hosts will be seeking to reach back-to-back finals, while Bolivia are hunting their first World Cup appearance since 1994.
Match preview
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The current standings in CONMEBOL qualifying do not tell the full story about how well Ecuador have performed so far, given that they were docked three points before the campaign started due to document-related controversy from the previous cycle.
Technically, Ecuador should be level on points with Uruguay and Brazil, but instead, they find themselves just inside the automatic qualifying places, only one point ahead of their upcoming opponents in the playoff spot.
Beccacece's men further illustrated their pragmatic approach to qualifying last month by drawing both of their games 0-0 against Paraguay and Uruguay, meaning there has been just 10 goals scored across their 10 qualifiers so far.
Narrow 1-0 defeats away to Argentina and Brazil remain the only blips on Ecuador's record so far, so if this impressive consistency continues then there will be no doubt that La Tricolor will be at the finals in 2026.
They did slightly limp over the line against Peru in September to win 1-0, and they did not provide much threat in the stalemate with Paraguay in their last two home games though, and form here will be crucial to getting them over the line.
Bolivia's dismal record on their travels means Beccacece cannot afford to see his side drop any points here, otherwise, that will bolster La Verde's chances of catching them, and offer an advantage to most of the sides around them, especially with a tough trip to Colombia coming up next week.
One look at their recent record with Bolivia could calm some nerves, though, as Ecuador have won six in a row at home to their upcoming opponents, scoring 14 goals in the process.
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While Bolivia have lost 14 of their last 19 games, they are still performing above expectations in this section, and have a real chance of making the finals being held in the USA, the same host country from their previous appearance over three decades ago.
However, simply put, Bolivia are an entirely different team away from home, as their 6-0 drubbing in Argentina proved last month.
Their shock win in Chile in September was their first on the road in qualifying for 67 matches, the longest winless streak anywhere in the world, as using the altitude to their advantage at home in El Alto will be the deciding factor as to whether they qualify.
Venezuela and Colombia could not handle the even more testing conditions higher up from their previous home ground in La Paz, with some of the Colombian players requiring oxygen on the sidelines during the game.
The odd point here and there on the road will be hugely beneficial, but it would be no surprise if La Verde are simply targeting four wins from their final four home games, which would almost surely guarantee at least a playoff place, if not better.
Team News
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While uncapped, Ecuador midfielder Oscar Zambrano was in the squad for October's fixtures, but the Hull City man has since been provisionally suspended for a doping offence and is not present this time around.
Promising attacker Keny Arroyo made his international debut off the bench in Uruguay last month, but is the only other absentee from a squad that is largely unchanged.
Alan Franco has recovered from injury in time to be called up and is set to keep his place in what has become a very settled XI under Beccacece, with a decision between Kendry Paez or Alan Minda on the left-wing the only debate.
There is also unlikely to be many changes in the Bolivian XI, but there has been in the squad, as Oscar Villegas has called up six uncapped players this month.
A further four players have just one cap each in what is largely an inexperienced side, but despite losing 6-0 last time out, it is unlikely there will be many personnel changes.
Villegas is expected to go less defensive after starting with a 5-4-1 against Argentina, but the big talking point will be whether Miguelito is fit to feature, as injury has kept him out over the last month.
Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Galindez; Torres, Pacho, Hincapie; Preciado, Franco, Caicedo, Estupinan; Plata, Valencia, Paez
Bolivia possible starting lineup:
Viscarra; Medina, Haquin, Suarez, Sagredo; Robson Matheus, Villamil, R. Vaca; Miguelito, Algaranaz, Chura
We say: Ecuador 2-0 Bolivia
With six wins in a row at home to Bolivia in qualifying, Ecuador will be confident of extending their unbeaten start at home by returning to winning ways after two 0-0 draws last month.
Bolivia have the worst defensive record on the continent, having conceded 21 goals in their 10 games so far, and the win in Chile was certainly an outlier that may not be replicated for some time.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Andrew Delaney
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
