Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 21, 2023 at 3am UK

Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Libertad
1 - 2
Alianza Lima

Cardozo (90+4' pen.)
Piris (67'), Barboza (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Rodriguez (46'), Sabbag (71')
Castillo (69'), Zambrano (90+3')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Club Libertad and Alianza Lima.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-1 Libertad
Thursday, April 6 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Alianza Lima

Last Game: Alianza Lima 0-0 Athletico PR
Tuesday, April 4 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 59.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 17.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	Alianza Lima
59.51% ( -0.02)	23.37% ( 0.02)	17.11% ( 0)

Both teams to score 45.65% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.78% (

-0.07)

53.22% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.22% (

-0.06)

74.78% (

0.06)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.41% (

-0.03)

17.59% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.84% (

-0.06)

48.15% (

0.06)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.4% (

-0.04)

44.6% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.39% (

-0.03)

80.61% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 59.5%

Alianza Lima 17.11%

Draw 23.36%

Club Libertad	Draw	Alianza Lima
1-0 @ 13.63% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 11.84% 2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.86% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.98% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 59.5%	1-1 @ 11% 0-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.36%	0-1 @ 6.33% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.44% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.56% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 1.54% Total : 17.11%