Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 4, 2023 at 11pm UK

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza Lima
0 - 0
Athletico PR

Castillo (33'), Reyna (45+1'), Sabbag (68'), Andrade (88'), Valenzuela (90+4')

Ivaldo (17'), Cuello (28'), Fernandinho (29'), Heleno (68'), Pablo (87')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Alianza Lima and Athletico Paranaense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Lima

Last Game: River Plate 8-1 Alianza Lima
Wednesday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Athletico Paranaense

All competitions

Last Game: Athletico PR 3-0 Botafogo
Sunday, November 13 at 7pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result
Alianza Lima	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
45.17% ( -0.26)	26.92% ( 0.37)	27.91% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 48.48% (

-1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.78% (

-1.43)

56.21% (

1.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.73% (

-1.17)

77.26% (

1.16)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.2% (

-0.76)

24.8% (

0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.62% (

-1.07)

59.38% (

1.06)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.47% (

-0.85)

35.53% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.7% (

-0.89)

72.3% (

0.88)

Score Analysis

Alianza Lima 45.16%

Athletico Paranaense 27.91%

Draw 26.91%

Alianza Lima	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 12.28% ( 0.4) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.4% Total : 45.16%	1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.91%	0-1 @ 9.12% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.02% Total : 27.91%