Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 26, 2022 at 11pm UK

Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
4 - 1
The Strongest

Melgarejo (25'), Mendieta (55' pen., 90'), Jusino (71' og.)
Merlini (33'), Barboza (76'), Caballero (81'), Gomez (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Ursino (41')
Aponte (35'), Saucedo (50'), Benegas (55'), Triverio (56')
Aponte (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Club Libertad and The Strongest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

Last Game: Libertad 4-1 The Strongest
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Next Game: Athletico PR vs. Libertad
Wednesday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

The Strongest

Last Game: Libertad 4-1 The Strongest
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Next Game: The Strongest vs. Ceara
Wednesday, June 29 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana

We said: Club Libertad 2-1 The Strongest

The Strongest's thrashing of Athletico Paranaense earlier in the group stage certainly makes us think that they could stage another surprise result, but we ultimately expect them to fall just short. Libertad have a strong squad and will be confident of winning to progress, particularly with home advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 24.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	The Strongest
50.26% ( -0.05)	25.58% ( 0.01)	24.16% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 49.26% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.33% (

-0.01)

53.67% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.83% (

-0.01)

75.16% (

0.01)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.62% (

-0.03)

21.38% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.64% (

-0.04)

54.36% (

0.05)

The Strongest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.65% (

0.03)

37.35% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.87% (

0.03)

74.13% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 50.25%

The Strongest 24.16%

Draw 25.58%

Club Libertad	Draw	The Strongest
1-0 @ 12.31% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.86% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.36% Total : 50.25%	1-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.98% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0) Other @ 0.86% Total : 25.58%	0-1 @ 7.86% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.96% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 1.7% Total : 24.16%