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Championship | Gameweek 4
Aug 26, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Den
Stoke logo

Millwall
1 - 0
Stoke

Nisbet (38')
Saville (7')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Laurent (18'), Wilmot (33'), Hoever (35'), Pearson (51'), McNally (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Norwich 3-1 Millwall
Sunday, August 20 at 12pm in Championship
Last Game: Stoke 1-0 Watford
Saturday, August 19 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Millwall 1-2 Stoke City

At some point, the assumption is that this Millwall squad will eventually start to click and make a playoff push. For now, though, we can only back a Stoke side who have settled well, and their extra firepower could prove key in the closing stages. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Millwall win was 1-0 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.

Result
MillwallDrawStoke City
31.96% (-0.19 -0.19) 27.13% (0.082000000000001 0.08) 40.9% (0.109 0.11)
Both teams to score 49.77% (-0.311 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.51% (-0.367 -0.37)55.49% (0.366 0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.33% (-0.301 -0.3)76.67% (0.3 0.3)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.86% (-0.322 -0.32)32.14% (0.321 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.38% (-0.367 -0.37)68.62% (0.36499999999999 0.36)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.33% (-0.111 -0.11)26.66% (0.11 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.09% (-0.149 -0.15)61.91% (0.148 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 31.96%
    Stoke City 40.9%
    Draw 27.13%
MillwallDrawStoke City
1-0 @ 9.73% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 7.3% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-0 @ 5.52% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.76% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.09% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.83% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 31.96%
1-1 @ 12.85% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 8.57% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 27.13%
0-1 @ 11.32% (0.12 0.12)
1-2 @ 8.5% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.49% (0.059 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.3% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.13% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.09% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 40.9%

How you voted: Millwall vs Stoke

Millwall
0.0%
Draw
30.0%
Stoke City
70.0%
10
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Jul 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 1
Millwall
2-0
Stoke
Cresswell (12', 65')
Cresswell (39')

Flint (44'), Kilkenny (83')
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 39
Stoke
2-0
Millwall
Brown (19'), Saville (70' og.)
Tymon (56'), Brown (65'), Thompson (84')

Ballard (85')
Oct 23, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 14
Millwall
2-1
Stoke
Bradshaw (51', 61')
Malone (32'), Smith (84')
Sawyers (20')
Souttar (45+1')
Apr 5, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 40
Stoke
1-2
Millwall
Brown (41')
Batth (37')
Wallace (36'), Bennett (71')
Wallace (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd21145230111945
2Leeds UnitedLeeds21126337152242
3Burnley2111822681841
4Sunderland21117332171540
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn2011452517837
6Middlesbrough21104735251034
7Watford2010462926334
8West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom2171132416832
9Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds218582630-429
10Swansea CitySwansea217682322127
11Bristol City216962626027
12Norwich CityNorwich216873632426
13Millwall206772018225
14Derby CountyDerby216692626024
15Coventry CityCoventry216692730-324
16Preston North EndPreston2141162127-623
17Stoke CityStoke215792328-522
18Queens Park RangersQPR2141072127-622
19Luton TownLuton2164112337-1422
20Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2046102133-1218
21Cardiff CityCardiff2046101932-1318
22Portsmouth193882134-1317
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2045111942-2317
24Hull City2137111930-1116


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