With confidence high in the camp of the visitors, it would be naive to write them off in this tie. However, while we are backing Pyunik to get on the scoresheet in Belgrade, Red Star are the clear favourites and should head into the reverse fixture in control. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 55.01%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for FC Pyunik had a probability of 20.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a FC Pyunik win it was 0-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Red Star Belgrade would win this match.

Result
Red Star Belgrade	Draw	FC Pyunik
55.01% ( -0.2)	24.21% ( -0.24)	20.79% ( 0.46)

Both teams to score 49.22% (

1.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.35% (

1.47)

51.65% (

-1.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.57% (

1.27)

73.43% (

-1.26)

Red Star Belgrade Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.33% (

0.48)

18.67% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50% (

0.8)

50% (

-0.8)

FC Pyunik Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.52% (

1.32)

39.48% (

-1.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.83% (

1.21)

76.17% (

-1.2)

Score Analysis

Red Star Belgrade 55.01%

FC Pyunik 20.79%

Draw 24.2%

Red Star Belgrade	Draw	FC Pyunik
1-0 @ 12.37% ( -0.54) 2-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.15) 4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.15% Total : 55.01%	1-1 @ 11.49% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.44) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.86% Total : 24.2%	0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.38% Total : 20.79%