Mainz

1 - 0

Hoffenheim

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.15%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 24.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.