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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
47.11% ( -0.56) | 24.2% ( -0.11) | 28.68% ( 0.67) |
Both teams to score 57.52% ( 0.88) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.34% ( 0.93) | 44.66% ( -0.93) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.98% ( 0.89) | 67.02% ( -0.89) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.91% ( 0.14) | 19.08% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.31% ( 0.23) | 50.69% ( -0.23) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.09% ( 0.96) | 28.91% ( -0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.21% ( 1.18) | 64.79% ( -1.18) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.24) 3-1 @ 5.19% 3-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.11% | 1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.57% Total : 28.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 23 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
6 | Freiburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 16 |
7 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Stuttgart | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
11 | Augsburg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
12 | Heidenheim | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
14 | Wolfsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
15 | St Pauli | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 1 |
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