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Bundesliga | Gameweek 8
Oct 1, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Mage-Solar-Stadion
Mainz logo

Freiburg
2 - 1
Mainz 05

Gregoritsch (3'), Kyereh (37')
Hofler (70'), Keitel (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Caricol (52')
Bell (33'), Barreiro (53'), Stach (60'), Kohr (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-0 Freiburg
Sunday, September 18 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 05 1-1 Hertha Berlin
Friday, September 16 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Mainz 05

Just three points separate the two sides, but recent form and home advantage might just be the decisive factor here. Freiburg come into the game on the back of three clean sheets in all competitions, whereas Mainz's recent form has been slightly more questionable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawMainz 05
47.11% (-0.56 -0.56) 24.2% (-0.113 -0.11) 28.68% (0.673 0.67)
Both teams to score 57.52% (0.875 0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.34% (0.929 0.93)44.66% (-0.931 -0.93)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.98% (0.891 0.89)67.02% (-0.892 -0.89)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.91% (0.137 0.14)19.08% (-0.139 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.31% (0.231 0.23)50.69% (-0.231 -0.23)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.09% (0.96199999999999 0.96)28.91% (-0.963 -0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.21% (1.177 1.18)64.79% (-1.179 -1.18)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 47.11%
    Mainz 05 28.68%
    Draw 24.2%
FreiburgDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-0 @ 9.14% (-0.331 -0.33)
2-0 @ 7.57% (-0.24 -0.24)
3-1 @ 5.19%
3-0 @ 4.18% (-0.113 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.085 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.15% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.73% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 47.11%
1-1 @ 11.34% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-2 @ 5.83% (0.129 0.13)
0-0 @ 5.52% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-3 @ 1.33% (0.069 0.07)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.2%
1-2 @ 7.04% (0.124 0.12)
0-1 @ 6.85% (-0.091 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.25% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.91% (0.127 0.13)
2-3 @ 2.41% (0.116 0.12)
0-3 @ 1.76% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 0.9% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 28.68%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Mainz 05

Freiburg
82.2%
Draw
13.3%
Mainz 05
4.4%
45
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2022 2.30pm
Sep 18, 2021 2.30pm
Mar 13, 2021 2.30pm
Nov 22, 2020 2.30pm
Freiburg
1-3
Mainz 05
Petersen (63')
Mateta (2', 34', 40')
Niakhate (66')
Jan 18, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz 05
1-2
Freiburg
Mateta (82')
Baku (26'), Hack (40'), Kunde (51'), Niakhate (82')
Chang-Hoon (28'), Petersen (41')
Haberer (37'), Abrashi (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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