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Bundesliga | Gameweek 32
May 4, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
5 - 1
Augsburg

Moukoko (4', 29'), Malen (20'), Reus (34'), Nmecha (64')
FT(HT: 4-1)
Vargas (32')
Bauer (10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Augsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 PSG
Wednesday, May 1 at 8pm in Champions League

Augsburg

All competitions
Last Game: Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen
Saturday, April 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Augsburg

 Now that Dortmund are guaranteed a Champions League spot for next season, Augsburg will hope that the hosts will take their foot off the gas on the domestic front as they endeavour to boost their own European hopes heading down the home straight. However, even if Terzic does decide to rotate his side, we believe that the BVB boss will still field a strong enough team to claim all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.75%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.41% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (5.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawAugsburg
55.75% (-1.292 -1.29) 19.84% (0.07 0.07) 24.41% (1.219 1.22)
Both teams to score 69.46% (1.325 1.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.67% (1.06 1.06)27.33% (-1.064 -1.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
52.09% (1.324 1.32)47.91% (-1.327 -1.33)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.88% (0.010999999999996 0.01)10.12% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.69% (0.031999999999996 0.03)33.31% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Augsburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.29% (1.463 1.46)22.71% (-1.468 -1.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.63% (2.126 2.13)56.37% (-2.128 -2.13)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 55.75%
    Augsburg 24.41%
    Draw 19.84%
Borussia DortmundDrawAugsburg
2-1 @ 8.94% (-0.177 -0.18)
3-1 @ 6.82% (-0.131 -0.13)
2-0 @ 6.03% (-0.391 -0.39)
1-0 @ 5.27% (-0.345 -0.35)
3-2 @ 5.06% (0.121 0.12)
3-0 @ 4.6% (-0.295 -0.3)
4-1 @ 3.91% (-0.073 -0.07)
4-2 @ 2.9% (0.071 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.64% (-0.167 -0.17)
5-1 @ 1.79% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-3 @ 1.43% (0.094 0.09)
5-2 @ 1.33% (0.034 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.21% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 3.84%
Total : 55.75%
1-1 @ 7.81% (-0.16 -0.16)
2-2 @ 6.63% (0.154 0.15)
3-3 @ 2.5% (0.162 0.16)
0-0 @ 2.3% (-0.152 -0.15)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 19.84%
1-2 @ 5.79% (0.13 0.13)
0-1 @ 3.41% (-0.072 -0.07)
2-3 @ 3.27% (0.211 0.21)
1-3 @ 2.86% (0.183 0.18)
0-2 @ 2.53% (0.056 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.079 0.08)
2-4 @ 1.21% (0.126 0.13)
1-4 @ 1.06% (0.109 0.11)
3-4 @ 0.93% (0.097 0.1)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 24.41%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Augsburg

Borussia Dortmund
83.6%
Draw
9.6%
Augsburg
6.8%
73
Head to Head
Dec 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Augsburg
1-1
Dortmund
Demirovic (23')
Gouweleeuw (79'), Gumny (90+4')
Malen (35')
Haller (90+1')
> Preview
May 21, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 33
Augsburg
0-3
Dortmund

Beljo (42'), Gouweleeuw (69'), Demirovic (73')
Uduokhai (38')
Haller (58', 84'), Brandt (90+3')
Can (47'), Adeyemi (69'), Wolf (73')
> Preview
Jan 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 16
Dortmund
4-3
Augsburg
Bellingham (29'), Schlotterbeck (42'), Bynoe-Gittens (75'), Reyna (78')
Maier (40'), Demirovic (45+1'), Colina (76')
> Preview
Feb 27, 2022 4.30pm
Gameweek 24
Augsburg
1-1
Dortmund
Sarenren Bazee (78')
Vargas (19'), Dorsch (47')
Hazard (35')
Bellingham (87')
> Preview
Oct 2, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Dortmund
2-1
Augsburg
Guerreiro (10' pen.), Brandt (51')
Reus (44')
Zeqiri (35')
Gruezo (13'), Oxford (15'), Zeqiri (53')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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