Euro 2020

[monks data]

Euro Champ Qualifying | Playoff Semi-Finals Route A

Oct 8, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Bulgaria
1 - 3
Hungary

Yomov (89')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Orban (17'), Kalmar (47'), Nikolic (75')
Lang (55'), Gazdag (88')

Preview: Bulgaria vs. Hungary - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter

Published: October 6 2020 | 11:17

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:39

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro qualifying Path A playoff semi-final between Bulgaria and Hungary, including team news and predicted lineups.

Bulgaria will be taking on Hungary on Thursday evening for the right to meet either Iceland or Romania in the European qualifying Path A playoff final.

Should either side go all the way in Path A, they will be placed into a daunting Group F for the final tournament which includes France, Germany and reigning champions Portugal.

Match preview

Bulgaria manager Georgi Dermendzhiev pictured in November 2019 © Reuters

Only Montenegro finished worse off than Bulgaria in qualification Group A, which saw Georgi Dermendzhiev's side win just one of their eight games as they slumped to fourth place.

However, with qualification for the playoffs based on Nations League performance, Bulgaria have been handed a lifeline in their bid to reach next summer's tournament having failed to make the finals since 2004.

Dermendzhiev witnessed his side pick up their solitary victory in the group in the final round of matches - a 1-0 triumph over the Czech Republic - with Bulgaria losing four and drawing the other three of their games in Group A, which was topped by England.

That victory over the Czech Republic was the first time that the Lions had come out on top in any competition since October 2018, with Dermendzhiev's men drawing with the Republic of Ireland and losing to Wales in September's Nations League fixtures.

Meanwhile, Hungary only finished two points worse off than second-placed Wales in Group E, but Marco Rossi's side will be forced to negotiate two more matches if they want to qualify for successive European Championships.

Hungary turned out in the 2016 edition - finishing top of Group F which included Iceland, Portugal and Austria - but the Magyars were soon sent packing as Belgium thrashed Hungary 4-0 in the last-16 stage.

Prior to 2016, Hungary had failed to qualify for the European Championships since 1972, where they managed to finish in fourth place after placing third in their maiden tournament in 1964.

Rossi's side managed to triumph 1-0 over Turkey before falling to a 3-2 defeat against Russia in last month's Nations League fixtures, and Rossi must also navigate his side through another fixture with Russia and a clash with Serbia in the days following the semi-final with Bulgaria.

Bulgaria and Hungary have not met since locking horns in an international friendly back in 2012, with that fixture ending in a 1-1 stalemate.

Bulgaria Euro Champ Qualifying form: LLLDLW
Bulgaria form (all competitions): LLWLDL

Hungary Euro Champ Qualifying form: WWLLWL
Hungary form (all competitions): LWLLWL

Team News

Red Bull Salzburg midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai pictured ahead of a Champions League match in November 2019 © Reuters

Bulgarian defender Cicinho, originally born in Brazil, was handed his debut for the national side in the loss to Wales and will look to keep his spot on the right-hand side of defence.

Cagliari's Kiril Despodov, who joined Ludogorets on loan during deadline day, has been included in the squad after missing out September's game due to a positive coronavirus test.

Despodov will be eyeing a start up top for Dermendzhiev's men, but Bozhidar Kraev will most likely be the one to spearhead the Bulgaria attack.

As for Hungary, the highly-rated Dominik Szoboszlai has been forced to withdraw from the squad owing to a cluster of coronavirus cases at RB Salzburg.

The 19-year-old started last month's Nations League games against Turkey and Russia, with his place in the Hungary attack set to be covered by Nemanja Nikolic, who came off the bench to net his side's second against Russia.

Bulgaria possible starting lineup:
Georgiev; Cicinho, Nedyalkov, Dimitrov, Velkovski; Kostadinov, Malinov; Karagaren, Nedelev, Ivanov; Kraev

Hungary possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Lang, Orban, Attila Szalai; Fiola, Nagy, Siger, Holender; Nikolic, Sallai; Adam Szalai

SM words green background

We say: Bulgaria 0-2 Hungary

Bulgaria's recent results make for bleak reading for the Lions faithful, who may not feel all that confident about their side's chances of advancing to next month's final. Hungary will be forced to make do without teenage starlet Szoboszlai, but we still expect Rossi's men to prevail and book their spot in the Path A playoff final.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hungary would win this match.