Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.